FIGURE 2 From existing + planned miningSupply as % of demand, all uses For NZE scenario, all usesFor NZE scenario, EVs onlyDemand in 2035 Supply in 2035 Lithium Nickel Cobalt432 kt4,265 kt 270 kt1,095 kt 435 kt6,179 kt 909 kt2,590 kt 247 kt39%69% 62%Critical minerals outlook for 2035 Source: IEA Critical Minerals Data Explorer8 Growth in demand and production also means that an increasing number of EVBs will reach the end of their useful lifetimes in the decades ahead – creating a need to responsibly manage these EOL batteries to avoid the harms of improper disposal. It takes years to build infrastructure, enact and implement policy, change corporate practices, and redesign manufacturing, distribution and consumption processes. It also takes decades to create systemic change in global systems. It is imperative to act now to be ready to manage the wave of batteries that will begin reaching their end of life in the middle of the next decade. In addition to the environmental and social risks of improper disposal, there are risks associated with the production of EVBs, and the increase in demand for EVBs will increase those risks if business-as-usual continues wherein the systems and processes for EVB production and EOL management remain largely unchanged from today. Fortunately, alternatives are available.To meet this growing EVB demand, annual mineral demand can be expected to reach 909 kilotonnes (kt) per year for lithium, 2,590 kt per year for nickel and 247 kt per year for cobalt by 2035.4 Battery chemistry innovations and density improvements have significantly reduced nickel and cobalt demand, and the trend is expected to accelerate in the future.5 Demand for lithium – the common mineral for nearly all of today’s EVB chemistries – is expected to grow significantly more than nickel and cobalt demand.6 According to IEA forecasts, supply from current and projected mining alone is insufficient to meet this growing demand: forecasted supply from existing and announced mining projects will meet only 39%, 69% and 62% of projected annual demand from EVBs and other uses of lithium, nickel and cobalt, respectively, for the year 2035 in a Net Zero Scenario.7 This could put the EV transition at risk. (These forecasts do not include any supply from EVB recycling, which will meet part of the demand. Forecasts will continue to change with rapidly evolving battery and recycling technology, continually changing supply projections and regular re-evaluations of EV demand forecasts.) Powering the Future: Overcoming Battery Supply Chain Challenges with Circularity 7

Powering the Future 2025