CASE STUDY 1 Moderna – mRNA optimization using quantum computing mRNA has become central to the development of vaccines and next-generation medicines. With this innovation comes the challenge of predicting how an mRNA strand folds into its functional shape. This process is extremely complex; the number of possible folds grows exponentially with sequence length, and current methods often miss key features such as pseudoknots – overlapping folds that play a crucial role in how RNA behaves. These gaps limit accuracy and reduce the number of viable candidates that can move forward in drug development. Moderna, a leader in the creation of the field of mRNA medicine, is working with IBM to test the use of quantum computing to address these limitations. The team ran hybrid quantum-classical experiments on IBM’s newest quantum processors. Even with today’s quantum hardware limits, the results were comparable to classical methods, and in the future, quantum approaches could provide a more diverse set of possible structures for researchers to consider. This “solution diversity” is important because it increases the number of promising, unique candidates entering the pipeline, improving the odds of finding effective medicines. In early pilots, workflows that would have taken weeks on HPC clusters were completed in hours using the hybrid approach. The ability to model structures more quickly and more completely could shorten development timelines, reduce costly failures and accelerate the pace at which new RNA therapies reach patients. While the exact cost of production-scale quantum runs cannot yet be measured, Moderna has set a clear benchmark: cost-of-ownership parity when running quantum solutions, including infrastructure and talent, becomes comparable to the best classical alternatives. The company estimates this could be achieved by the end of the decade, when fault-tolerant machines with approximately 100 reliable logical qubits are expected. Demonstrating quantum advantage alone is not sufficient; cost considerations are critical. The tipping point for us will be cost- of-ownership parity, when the full solution is less expensive than the best classical system. Alexey Galda, Associate Scientific Director, Quantum Algorithms and Applications, Moderna. Moderna is also investing in strong ecosystem ties to help ensure readiness, collaborating with IBM on quantum infrastructure. The company is participating in Wellcome Leap’s Quantum for Bio (Q4Bio) programme to align with long-term stakeholders and safeguard continuity beyond early pilots. To tackle broader shortages of skilled quantum computing talent, Moderna is collaborating with top universities to create joint PhD programmes and using training partnerships, while also engaging early with regulators to de-risk adoption. By building proprietary workflows and datasets now, Moderna is well-positioned to move quickly when cost parity is reached, opening the door to more efficient RNA design and the ability to solve problems that classical methods exclude. Quantum Technologies: Strategic Imperatives for Health and Healthcare Leaders 14

Quantum Technologies Strategic Imperatives for Health and Healthcare Leaders 2025