Shaping the Deep Tech Revolution in Agriculture 2025

An increasing rural to urban migration is also threatening production. In 1960, more than 65% of the world’s population lived in rural areas.6 This fell to 43% in 20237 and is projected to decline further to 32% by 2050.8 Such trends, which result in a decline in productive resources, threaten food security in the long run. –Climate change and intensifying weather extremes: Climate volatility is projected to significantly affect crop productivity globally. Estimates suggest that even after adaptation measures, the global yield of calories from staple crops could be 24% lower in 2100, if emissions are not curtailed.9 In India, irregular rainfall and increasing temperatures have already led to losses of close to 65% in several horticultural crops.10 –Natural resource degradation (soil and water): The agriculture sector is responsible for 70% of freshwater withdrawals. However, currently 71% of groundwater aquifers are depleted, which is likely to drive agricultural water stress.11 Similarly, 95% of global food production is dependent on soil. While one-third of global soil is degraded today, close to 90% of the Earth’s topsoil is likely to be degraded by 2050.12 –Rising food demand and demand–supply mismatch: Alongside production pressures, a growing population will also increase food demand. In comparison to 2005–2007 levels, by 2050 global food production will need to increase by about 70%, and to nearly double in developing countries.13 This increase would have to be delivered alongside rising resource constraints and climate uncertainties. Furthermore, the sector is challenged by a demand and supply mismatch, leading to significant food loss and wastage. Close to 13% of global food production is lost after harvest at the farm level and before retail,14 while 19% of food in retail, food services and households is wasted.15 –Geopolitical instability and friction: Geopolitical tensions could disrupt agricultural supply chains in the future. To illustrate this, in May 2022 fertilizer prices reached record highs due to several supply chain disruptions often attributed to the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, a significant proportion of countries (close to 36%) are net importers of food, signifying risks to food security due to geopolitical shifts. In the past, there have been several instances where trade disruptions in the Red Sea have led to volatile food prices in importing countries.16 Shaping the Deep-Tech Revolution in Agriculture 7