Sports for People and Planet 2026

Analysis of 2030 revenue projections indicates that the greatest exposure to physical inactivity and environmental risks lies in sports tourism, sporting goods and participatory sports; sectors that rely most heavily on active populations and stable environmental conditions. While professional sport faces comparatively lower direct exposure, its investment case is increasingly vulnerable as investors integrate rising climate risks into valuation and capital allocation decisions. Heightened risk perception may result in deferred or withdrawn investment, higher insurance costs, reduced coverage availability and more conservative asset valuations. These dynamics undermine the traditional economic rationale for hosting major sporting events. Benefits such as tourism growth, visitor spending and local economic stimulus are becoming less predictable and more susceptible to external shocks. This creates a structural tension: the very arguments used to justify major event investment are becoming increasingly uncertain, threatening the long-term viability of both elite and participatory sport models under current growth paradigms. These risks are particularly acute in emerging sport regions, where infrastructure deficits intersect with high exposure to climate hazards. As regions such as Asia Pacific host a significant share of global sporting goods manufacturing, environmental stress heightens the likelihood that supply chain disruption and resource shortages could further elevate financial risk and constrain future growth potential. Together, these dynamics underscore the urgency of transitioning towards strategies that simultaneously expand participation, strengthen climate resilience and reduce environmental harm, safeguarding the long-term economic and social value of the sport ecosystem. Physical inactivity as a constraint on demand and growth Rising physical inactivity is a public health concern, but it is also becoming a structural brake on the future growth of the sports economy. Nearly one-third of adults and up to 80% of young people do not meet recommended physical activity guidelines,32 contributing directly to the global increase in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular disease, obesity and type 2 diabetes, which account for 74% of global deaths.33 Despite the World Health Organization’s target to reduce global inactivity to 22% by 2030 under the Global Action Plan on Physical Activity (GAPPA), global rates have continued to rise, increasing from 26% in 2010 to 31% in 2022, with projections suggesting they could reach 35% by 2030.34 This would equate to up to 800 million fewer active individuals than anticipated, shrinking the foundational consumer base that underpins participation, sports tourism, merchandise sales and long-term fan engagement. The economic burden of inactivity is already substantial. Between 2020 and 2030, physical inactivity is projected to cost healthcare systems approximately $300 billion,35 placing growing strain on government budgets. Across selected G20 economies, preventive health measures, including the promotion of physical activity, currently account for less than 6% of total health expenditure.36 The greatest exposure to physical inactivity and environmental risks lies in sports tourism, sporting goods and participatory sports. Sports for People and Planet 17