The Future of Materials Systems 2026

Stakeholders highlighted two key challenges where stronger international cooperation is most urgently needed: –The absence of effective coordination mechanisms for strategic mineral markets, which is contributing to volatility, opaque market behaviour and supply insecurity. –Persistent trade and regulatory barriers that constrain the cross-border movement of secondary raw materials and circular products, limiting the scaling-up of circular value chains. Addressing these challenges is essential to restore predictability, reduce fragmentation and ensure that trade systems support, rather than undermine, resilient and sustainable materials systems. Market coordination on strategic minerals For trade in strategic minerals, including those critical to the energy and digital transitions, market dynamics are increasingly shaped by geopolitical competition and assertions of national sovereignty. Rapid growth in demand for minerals such as lithium, rare earths and advanced semiconductor inputs, combined with high geographic concentration of mining, processing and refining capacity, has heightened concerns over security of access. In response, governments are intervening more actively in minerals markets through export controls, domestic processing requirements and strategic stockpiling, often with limited international coordination. Recent restrictions on gallium and germanium exports, alongside growing use of critical minerals stockpiles, illustrate how policy interventions can quickly reverberate across global supply chains, amplifying price volatility and investment uncertainty. These pressures are particularly acute for by- product minerals such as cobalt, indium and germanium, whose supply is tied to the economics of primary commodities like copper, zinc or aluminium. As these materials are rarely produced in response to their own demand signals and are poorly captured in existing trade and market data, their availability is harder to anticipate and their flows more difficult to trace. As a result, by-product minerals are especially exposed to disruption, policy shocks and geopolitical leverage, with limited mechanisms in place today to anticipate risks or coordinate responses across producer and consumer countries. As a response to these challenges, the Mining 2030 initiative called for the creation of an international coordination and knowledge body for minerals,25 which could fill intergovernmental governance gaps in: –Forecasting demand and production trends across minerals supply chains: this would offer a more consistent foundation for long-term planning, helping to strengthen market resilience and address accessibility challenges. –Improving mechanisms for transparency and accountability, particularly the tracking of illicit mineral flows. –Developing benchmarks and key performance indicators for responsible mining, processing and finance. Governments are intervening in minerals markets through export controls, domestic processing requirements and strategic stockpiling, often with limited international coordination. Examples of ongoing cooperation – G20 and G7 commitments on critical minerals BOX 6 Recent G20 and G7 processes have elevated critical minerals to the centre of international economic and sustainability cooperation. The G20 Critical Minerals Framework is a voluntary, non-binding blueprint to make critical mineral resources a driver of prosperity and sustainable development, through international cooperation to secure sustainable, transparent, stable and resilient value chains. It emphasises unlocking investment in exploration, promoting local beneficiation at source and strengthening governance for sustainable mining practices. It also seeks to preserve the sovereign rights of mineral-endowed countries, while ensuring economic, social and environmental stewardship, conservation, community participation and supply security.26 Complementing this, the G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan commits members to transparency and supply-chain diversification, and sets out actions on standards-based markets, traceability and investment partnerships, with an emphasis on innovation including recycling and circular economy approaches. These plurilateral political commitments are reinforced by UNEA-7’s Resolution on “strengthening international cooperation on the environmentally sound management of minerals and metals”, which calls for enhanced data, traceability and cooperation across the full minerals lifecycle. Together, these initiatives signal growing consensus on the need for coordinated approaches, while leaving scope for more operational mechanisms to translate commitments into practice. The Future of Materials Systems: Cooperation Opportunities in a Multipolar World 26