The Global Risks Report 2024

Mirroring the previous year’s survey results, the Cost-of-living crisis (42%) and Cyberattacks (39%) remain major concerns in the outlook overall and appear as a top-three concern for government and private-sector respondents, respectively. The Cost-of-living crisis is ranked higher by younger age groups: it was selected by 55% of respondents aged 39 or below, compared to just 28% of those aged 60 or over. 4 Although energy and food crises ranked among the top risks of 2023, this year less than one-fifth of respondents selected Disrupted supply chains for food (18%) or Disrupted supply chains for energy (14%) as core concerns for 2024. The survey was conducted in September of 2023, thus the outlook may have since shifted given the conflict in the Middle East, particularly if hostilities escalate. Climate pressures may yet drive prices higher; 5 however, a warmer winter in the Northern Hemisphere, for example, followed by the easing of the El Niño cycle over the summer, could partially alleviate further energy price spikes resulting from any escalation of the Israel-Gaza or Russia-Ukraine conflicts. Notably, while the survey was conducted before the outbreak of the former conflict, a quarter of respondents rank the Escalation or outbreak of interstate armed conflict(s) (25%) as among the top five risks for 2024, pointing to a broader set of concerns. At more than 200,000 deaths in 2022, conflict deaths are at the highest level in decades, driven predominantly by state-based armed conflict. 6 Risks relating to the financial, tech and real-estate sectors are towards the bottom of respondents’ concerns for 2024. Weakened systems only require the smallest shock to edge past the tipping point of resilience. In the second time frame covered by the survey, respondents were asked to rank the likely impact of risks in the next two years. The results suggest that corrosive socioeconomic vulnerabilities will be amplified in the near term, with looming concerns about an Economic downturn (Chapter 1.5), resurgent risks such as Interstate armed conflict (Chapter 1.4), and rapidly evolving risks like Misinformation and disinformation (Chapter 1.3). As discussed in last year’s Global Risks Report, less predictable and harder-to-handle inflation heightens the risk of miscalibration of efforts to balance price stability and economic growth (Chapter 1.5: Economic uncertainty). Economic risks are notable new entrants to the top 10 rankings this year, with both Inflation (#7) and Economic downturn (#9) featuring in the two-year time frame (Figure 1.3). Economic risks are prioritized in particular by public- and private-sector respondents (Figure 1.5). Geoeconomic confrontation (#14) is a marked absence from the top 10 rankings this year (Figure 1.4) and has decreased in perceived severity compared to last year’s scores. However, like related economic risks, it features among the top concerns for both public- and private-sector respondents (at #10 and #11, respectively) as a continuing source of economic volatility. The path to 2026 1.2 Global risks ranked by severity over the short term (2 years) FIGURE 1.3 Source World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024."Please estimate the likely impact (severity) of the following risks over a 2-year period." 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Lack of economic opportunity Inflation Involuntary migration Economic downturn Pollution 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Misinformation and disinformation Extreme weather events Societal polarization Cyber insecurity Interstate armed conflict Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological Global Risks Report 2024 14