The Global Risks Report 2024

Entrenched market concentration Private sector-led development of a powerful dual- use (both civilian and military) technology makes regulatory guardrails even more essential. However, commercial incentives and national security-driven “tech wars” may outstrip regulatory efforts to curb adverse societal and security outcomes. GRPS respondents highlight Cyber insecurity and Technological power concentration as the only risk drivers of Adverse outcomes of AI technologies (Figure 2.12). The production of AI technologies is highly concentrated, in a singular, globally integrated supply chain that favors a few companies and countries (Figure 2.13). 55 This creates significant supply-chain risks that may unfold over the coming decade. For example, export controls over early stages of the supply chain (including minerals), could raise overall costs and lead to persistent inflationary pressures. Restricted access to more complex inputs (such as semiconductors) could radically alter the trajectory of advanced technological deployment within a country. The extensive deployment of a small set of AI foundation models, 56 including in finance and the public sector, or overreliance on a single cloud provider, could give rise to systemic cyber vulnerabilities, paralyzing critical infrastructure. Given the strategic significance of AI technologies, national security objectives will likely remain the primary objective of innovation and industrial policy in several economies in response to market concentration, shaping upstream market dynamics (Figure 2.14). States will aim for securing their supply chains, onshoring and friend-shoring where possible. For example, China is pursuing a largely independent supply chain, given export controls that block access to the most advanced semiconductor chips. 57 Some states may seek to capture lucrative economic gains associated with these technologies, while others will aim to address concentration, potentially at the price of innovation. Building on a history of tackling anti-competitive practices in the tech sector, 58 the EU plans to deploy new mechanisms to disrupt the dominance of digital “gatekeepers” and is also reportedly considering an investigation into anti-competitive practices in graphics processing unit (GPU) chips. 59 Technological power FIGURE 2.12 Source World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2023-2024. Edges Relative influence High LowMediumRisk influenceNodes High LowMedium Risk categories Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal TechnologicalReferenceRisk interconnections: Adverse consequences of AI technologies and Technological power concentration Censorship and surveillance Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies Cyber insecurity Adverse outcomes of AI technologiesTechnological powerconcentrationMisinformation and disinformationErosion of human rights Societal polarization Lack of economic opportunity Global Risks Report 2024 51