The Global Risks Report 2024

AI winners and losers Indeed, extensive integration of AI technologies may create a new set of winners and losers across advanced and developing economies alike. The digital gap between high- and low- income countries is likely to lead to stark disparities in the societal impact – both benefits and risks – of AI technologies. The most vulnerable countries and communities in advanced and developing economies could be left further behind, digitally isolated from turbocharged AI breakthroughs in economic productivity, finance, climate, education and healthcare (Chapter 2.5: End of development?). Dominance of the Global North in tech stack development could perpetuate social, cultural and political biases, while resilience to risks posed by AI, from mis- and disinformation to criminal use, may also be lower in the Global South. Tech talent – and therefore the deep understanding of these technologies – is concentrated in limited markets, with the resulting knowledge gap making effective regulation challenging. Across countries, AI tools could be licensed or repurposed as tools of repression, where relevant norms or regulations are nascent or non-existent (Chapter 1.3: False information). 67 Imbalances in military capabilities could also be entrenched, with related applications raising significant ethical and human rights concerns around accountability. As such, access to the tech stack will become an even more critical component of soft power for rival states to cement their influence. The self-reinforcing nature of AI development is such that producers of these technologies will only become more firmly established as AI is utilized to achieve the next technological breakthrough (or the “rich-get-richer” effect). 68 However, a widening array of pivotal powers could leverage their own competitive advantages in the highly concentrated value chain to obtain access to these technologies on more favorable terms, leading to novel power dynamics. This could range from suppliers of critical minerals, including Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Morocco, Viet Nam and Chile, to those that could leverage IP , such as Japan and South Korea, or capital, like Norway and Singapore. Further, a handful of states, such as India, may soon have the scale and economic might to disrupt technology development directly, with new innovations capturing market share or key stages of the value-added supply chain. 69 The next global shock? BOX 2.6 The unelected billionaire Technological power in the hands of the unelected is seen by numerous GRPS respondents to be a bigger concern than power concentrated in government. The influence of Big Tech companies is already transnational, competing with the likes of nation states, 70 and generative AI will continue to catalyse the power of these companies and associated founders. Although the influence of these companies is predominantly exercised in the regulatory sphere for now, control over dual-use, general purpose technologies will continue to confer significant and direct power to private actors. The risk of unilateral action by individuals could rise in a variety of new domains with significant consequences – such as the use of civilian satellites in the war in Ukraine. 71 Michael Dziedzic, Unsplash Global Risks Report 2024 54