The Global Risks Report 2024

Definitions of global risks TABLE A.1 Biological, chemical or nuclear hazardsIntentional or accidental release of biological, chemical, nuclear or radiological hazards, resulting in loss of life, destruction and/or international crises. Includes accidents at or sabotage of biolaboratories, chemical plants and nuclear power plants, as well as the intentional or accidental release of biological, chemical and nuclear weapons. Geoeconomic confrontation(sanctions, tariffs,investment screening)Deployment of economic levers by global or regional powers to reshape economic interactions between nations, restricting goods, knowledge, services or technology with the intent of building self-sufficiency, constraining geopolitical rivals and/or consolidating spheres of influence. Includes, but is not limited to: currency measures; investment controls; sanctions; state aid and subsidies; and trade controls.Disruptions to critical infrastructureOverload or shutdown of physical and digital infrastructure (including satellites) or services underpinning critical systems, including the internet, telecommunications, public utilities, financial system or energy. Stemming from, but not limited to: cyberattacks; intentional or unintentional physical damage; extreme weather events; and natural disasters. Economic downturn (recession, stagnation)Near-zero or slow global growth lasting for several years or a global contraction (recession or depression). Illicit economic activity Global proliferation of organized crime or the illicit activities of businesses that undermine economic advancement and growth. Includes, but is not limited to: illicit financial flows (e.g. tax evasion, sanctions evasion, money laundering) and illicit trade and trafficking (e.g. counterfeiting, human trafficking, wildlife trade, weapons). Inflation Sustained increases in the price of goods and services. Includes the potential for broad sections of the population being unable to maintain current lifestyle with declining purchasing power. Talent and/or labour shortagesGlobal, geographical or industry mismatches between labour and skills supply and demand. GEOPOLITICAL Biodiversity loss andecosystem collapse Severe consequences for the environment, humankind and economic activity due to destruction of natural capital stemming from a result of species extinction or reduction, spanning both terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Critical change to Earth systems(climate tipping points)Long-term, potentially irreversible and self-perpetuating changes to critical planetary systems, as a result of breaching a critical threshold or ‘tipping point’, at a regional or global level, that have abrupt and severe impacts on planet health or human welfare. Includes, but is not limited to: sea level rise from collapsing ice sheets; carbon release from thawing permafrost; and disruption of ocean or atmospheric currents. Extreme weather eventsLoss of human life, damage to ecosystems, destruction of property and/or financial loss due to extreme weather events. Inclusive of land-based (e.g. wildfires), water-based (e.g. floods), and atmospheric and temperature-related (e.g. heat-waves) events, including those exacerbated by climate change. Natural resource shortages (food,water)Supply shortages of food or water for human, industry or ecosystem use. Manifesting as food and water insecurity at a local, regional or global level as a result of human overexploitation and mismanagement of critical natural resources, climate change (including drought, desertification), and/or a lack of suitable infrastructure. Non-weather-related natural disastersLoss of human life, damage to ecosystems, destruction of property and/or financial loss due to non-weather-related natural disasters. Inclusive of land-based (e.g. earthquakes, volcanos), water-based (e.g. tsunamis), and extra-terrestrial based (e.g. asteroid strikes and geomagnetic storms). Pollution (air, soil, water)Introduction of harmful materials into the air, water and soil stemming from human activity, resulting in impacts to and loss of human life, financial loss and/or damage to ecosystems. Inclusive of household and industrial activities and accidents, oil spills and radioactive contamination. ENVIRONMENTAL Global Risks Report 2024 96