Since the end of World War II, international trade has been anchored by a rules-based system and institutions that reduced trade barriers and expanded markets. The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), succeeded by the World Trade Organization (WTO), provided the framework for the gradual liberalization of global exchange, which resulted in a 4,300% growth in world trade levels since 1950.1 Technological developments played a key role in this growth; containerization, digital networks and data-driven operations empowered businesses to build complex supply chains across borders. This trade growth is now threatened by heightened geopolitical risk.2 Global merchandise trade volume is forecast to grow by only 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, and slow even further in 2026 to just 0.5% as a result of higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.3 Discriminatory trade policies have seen a remarkable increase, rising from 55 in 2019 to 2,752 in 2024.4This uncertain trade environment is making it more difficult for both governments and businesses to operate. Policy-makers are trying to balance security, resilience and competitiveness while firms must reorganize their supply chains and comply with an increasing number of trade rules. Technology is also affected by these geopolitical shifts, notably through export controls, data sovereignty and market access restrictions. Today, technology sits at the intersection of national security and competitive advantage. Technology can enable the movement of goods, money and data, creating new avenues for collaboration between all actors in the system, while also deepening strategic competition, as nations seek to secure technological supremacy. In this context, global trade is increasingly shaped by a tradetech paradox: geopolitical tensions on one hand, and unprecedented technological connectivity on the other. Political divergence and strategic rivalries are pulling supply chains apart, while technological innovations are enabling new forms of collaboration and connection. Introduction Geopolitics is reshaping trade and technology, yet digital tools can sustain flows, deepen resilience and expand collaboration across borders. The TradeTech Paradox: Connectivity Amid Fragmentation 5

The TradeTech Paradox Connectivity Amid Fragmentation 2026