The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 2024

TABLE 1 GGW countries’ VCM potential (in millions of hectares & millions of tonnes of CO2-equivalent) Voluntary Carbon market: Burkina FasoChad Dji- boutiEritrea Ethiopia Mali Mauri -taniaNiger Nigeria Senegal Sudan Attractiveness index *** *** *** *** **** *** *** ** **** **** ** Pillar 1: Carbon market readiness**** ** * *** ***** *** ** ** ***** *** * Pillar 2: Investment landscape** *** *** *** *** * *** *** *** **** ** Pillar 3: Climate, environment and people*** *** *** *** **** *** *** *** ***** **** **** Improvement in attractiveness ranking (2023 to 2024)*** **** > > > *** ** * *** > * Notes: 1) The table converts Abatable’s VCM Investment Attractiveness Index rankings of each country out of 100 into a five-star rating. Countries with rankings from 0-19 receive one star; 20-39 receive two stars; 40-59 three stars; 60-79 four stars; and 80-100 five stars. 2) The bottom row refers to progress in national ranking of investment attractiveness over the past year, using the same star system. The > symbol refers to a lack of progress, which could include a backwards movement as other countries become more attractive. Source: Abatable. (2024). VCM Investment Attractiveness Index.311.3 Enabling environment A key consideration in project investment is the enabling environment, in both political and policy terms, as well as the direct relationships between project developers, government and community leaders from the national to community level. While direct relationships must be assessed on a case-by-case basis, some broad conclusions can be drawn on the wider environment. Table 1 summarizes the enabling environment for VCM projects in all 11 GGW countries, ranked by country against three criteria: carbon market readiness; investment landscape; and climate, environment and people. Figure 4 gives an overview of worldwide VCM attractiveness ratings. It is notable that a number of middle-income GGW countries are among the most attractive globally for VCM investment, with Nigeria rated 7th and Ethiopia 13th. Many GGW countries are also among those showing most improvement in terms of attractiveness. However, it should be noted that a strong project- enabling environment does not automatically result in best practice or high-integrity carbon projects. For example, strong government policies may enable project development on public land while reducing access to carbon finance on community land. Carbon projects on public land may also be favoured by some investors, as they avoid some of the risks related to changing individual or community land-use practices and potentially long or expensive free, prior and informed consent (FPIC) processes. As a result, such an approach may prevent local communities directly benefiting from carbon funding. The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 11 Nigeria and Ethiopia are rated respectively the 7th and 13th most attractive countries globally for VCM investment.