The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 2024

Annex: Methodological approach Analyses are based on the published methodology from Walker et al (2022).56 We utilized the insights, data and methodologies presented in their work to understand the unrealized carbon sequestration potential across various land-use types, including forests, savannah, grasslands and agricultural areas. Specifically, the analysis combines global forest inventories with satellite and spaceborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI). This approach predicts potential biomass using bioclimatic variables in future climate scenarios, applying a random forest machine learning algorithm. The model accounts for known pixel-level uncertainty at a 500m grid resolution. Our research then refines this global survey to assess the carbon stock potential of the 11 countries in the GGW region, accounting for the specific climatic conditions present. Using the Köppen-Geiger classification system to focus on arid and semi-arid regions, we estimate a total carrying capacity of over 34 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Full methodological note here: Our Carbon Finance Methodology | Tree aid.57The literature review was conducted through a systematic approach for identifying, assessing and synthesizing the relevant research on the voluntary carbon market, carbon projects, forestry, reforestation and restoration in the Sahel region and the African continent. Literature published between 2020-2024 was prioritized for ensuring up to date information. Reports and case studies from organizations carrying out operations in the region were selected for their relevance and rigorous methodologies. Using a qualitative approach, interviews were conducted with three project community members ensuring participation of different genders and roles and responsibilities. The interviews were conducted by a Tree Aid consultant with extensive local knowledge of the area, language and community dynamics. The questionnaire was designed to assess the community’s understanding of carbon projects and gather feedback on the benefits they have received and expect in the future. Interviews were conducted in person to build trust and maintain rapport with participants. Validation of the approach and findings was provided by the 1t.org Sahel/GGW Stakeholder Council and Carbon Working Group members (see Acknowledgements). The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 25