The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 2024

Executive summary The Sahel is one of the regions most affected by the climate crisis globally. Extreme heat, land degradation and disrupted weather patterns have inflicted severe damage on a fragile ecosystem and its communities. The African Union-led Great Green Wall for the Sahara and Sahel initiative (GGW), founded in 2007, has set out a grand vision of restoration. The aim is to restore over 100 million hectares of degraded landscapes, through a mosaic of activities focused on forest restoration, regenerative agricultural practices and green job creation. However, the GGW is falling behind its 2030 target. A reliance on inadequate public funding has failed to deliver the scale of restoration initiatives needed across the region and a new impetus is required to maximize existing opportunities. The extensive land and forest degradation across GGW countries not only provides a major challenge to the region but also a significant opportunity for investment and restoration at scale. Building on the World Economic Forum’s 2022 insight report The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Value Chains: An Action Agenda to Scale Restoration in the Sahel,2 this white paper looks at the potential for the GGW to encourage corporate investment through the voluntary carbon market (VCM). It explores VCMs as a viable source of restoration funding and demonstrates the significant investment opportunity which, if handled correctly, could be a “win-win-win” scenario for nature, community and private sector investors. Analysis by Tree Aid suggests an untapped VCM potential of 1.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (tCO2e) across the region, equivalent to a potential carbon asset value of $28 billion at 2023’s market price of $15.74, which is predicted to increase significantly.3 This report also addresses some of the misconceptions about investment in the region, showcasing examples of existing carbon projects and looking at ways to manage risk. It demonstrates how many of the actual and perceived risks of investing in the region can be mitigated through the innovation and capacity building already underway and shows that investor- ready initiatives do exist across GGW countries. The report concludes with five key recommendations to develop and support the investment environment: 1. Strengthen the regulatory framework for voluntary carbon markets in the Sahel: Regulation gaps at national policy level lead to uncertainty, which inhibits expansion of the carbon market in the Sahel. Governments and international institutions must develop a fully robust policy framework in order to create a thriving market environment. 2. Mobilize ongoing public funding to strengthen the enabling environment for future carbon investments: There has already been a great deal of investment in building the capacity of communities to manage their landscapes effectively. New carbon investments can take advantage of this past and ongoing work to align and maximize returns for communities. 3. Generate new VCM public-private partnerships to de-risk private sector investment: Given the higher risk profile of the Sahel, additional incentives must be created to encourage private investment. Donor governments and multilateral development banks should look to co-invest in carbon-sequestering restoration work, given the substantial social, economic and environmental benefits created from building a thriving carbon market. 4. Focus on community-centred approaches to create green jobs: To ensure the best possible quality, price point and long-term viability of projects and the voluntary carbon market as a whole, VCM stakeholders must ensure that local communities are empowered to lead and implement projects, and benefit from the available returns. 5. Improve transparency, information-sharing and learning across all stakeholders: Information gaps remain across the sector. The market can only thrive if these gaps are closed. Investors, community members, national governments and project proponents must maintain a high level of transparency and information-sharing to develop a successful market.The Great Green Wall initiative to restore 100 million hectares of the Sahara and Sahel is falling behind its 2030 target. Public money has proved insufficient, but the voluntary carbon market could deliver much needed funding. The Untapped Potential of Great Green Wall Voluntary Carbon Market Projects 4