Trade Compliance for Leadership Navigating a Shifting Global Landscape 2025

The shift from a relatively stable multilateral trading system to more volatile trade policy requires trade professionals to reacquaint themselves with tariff analysis. An interviewee described their current state of play as being “swamped with scenario analysis”, trying to anticipate the price implications of shifting production in response to new tariffs. As a logistics service provider, one interviewee indicated that enquiries for support on tariff and customs issues from their customers increased by 1,000% during May 2025. International trade management professionals may also be caught between immediate operational demands – such as providing insights to leadership and ensuring supply chain continuity – and the longer-term task of reassessing supply chains and identifying mitigation strategies. Many interviewees noted that it is difficult to find the right professionals with skills for both operational execution and strategic foresight. Interviewees also noted data shortcomings for assessing the impact of tariff changes. Trade and supply chain data may be fragmented across company systems. Many companies rely on customs brokers to manage import and export processes. While this can improve efficiency, it often creates blind spots when there are no clear agreements on data collection and sharing. Equally, companies may simply not yet have collected the right data. For example, under the potential new US tariff regime, companies may need to demonstrate product origin. However, accurately establishing product origin requires setting up supply chain visibility, including at production and component stages. Interviewees noted that such data could be established but it would take time – especially for companies that were used to relatively low-duty exposure and had a small trade compliance footprint. Export controls and sanctions have also risen in the past decade as a result of geopolitical developments. Trade functions are now required to navigate a growing web of restrictions targeting dual-use goods, sensitive technologies, critical raw materials and specific jurisdictions, with the added complexity that some sanction regulations go beyond Tier 1 suppliers and that export controls may also affect foreign investment regimes. The US Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, for example, considers export restrictions to assess foreign investments in US businesses. Trade teams need to undertake customer screening, provide internal control evidence and keep pace with fast-changing legislation. The fragmentation of global sanction regimes means that compliance and risk mitigation is not only about adhering to one set of rules but managing overlapping and sometimes conflicting requirements across jurisdictions. Export controls and sanctions are often treated as distinct domains, and few professionals are equipped to handle both. Risks and opportunities The risks of failing to adapt a company’s trade strategy to geopolitical shifts include overpaying on duties, misclassifying the origin or tariff classification of goods, competitive disadvantage and product delays. For example, companies may relocate production or sourcing without fully understanding the downstream compliance implications, leading to higher costs and reduced efficiency. Further, the inability to respond quickly and strategically can result in lost market access, shipment delays or reputational damage. However, companies that proactively tackle these challenges can unlock strategic opportunities.3 By investing in trade intelligence, scenario planning and cross-functional collaboration, businesses can turn international trade management into a competitive advantage. For example, companies that build robust systems to track origin and tariff exposure can optimize sourcing decisions and reduce landed costs. Those that integrate geopolitical risk monitoring into supply chain planning can pivot more effectively in response to new trade barriers or export controls. Additionally, firms that demonstrate strong compliance capabilities may be better positioned to engage with regulators, secure trusted trader status with faster processing of shipments at the border or benefit from other streamlined customs procedures. In this way, trade compliance becomes not just a defensive function but a strategic enabler for resilience in shifting geopolitical dynamics.2.1 Geopolitical developments Volatile tariff regimes, expanded export controls and sanctions put pressure on the skills, capacity and available data for the international trade management function. Trade Compliance for Leadership: Navigating a Shifting Global Landscape 12