A more constructive approach requires shifting the narrative from restriction to redistribution. Many regions remain under-visited and could benefit significantly from tourism as a catalyst for economic opportunity, infrastructure investment and local development – particularly when aligned with community needs and sustainability goals. The focus should be on managing flows, diversifying tourism offerings and fostering more balanced and inclusive growth across the ecosystem, rather than curbing the fundamental right and aspiration to travel. If visitor numbers in the most visited cities continue to grow at rates that match or exceed sector averages, they will see significant increases in the levels of visitor-to-resident ratios. By 2034, Dubai’s ratio could rise from 5.5:1 to 6.9:1, Paris from 1.3:1 to 1.8:1 and London from 1.9:1 to 2.6:1 (Figure 5). While there is no universal “ideal” ratio – what is acceptable varies based on infrastructure or spatial distribution – these projected increases would surpass thresholds that have historically triggered community concern in similar destinations. These increases heighten the potential for tension as showcased in local housing markets. This impact is multifaceted: while some residents and local businesses benefit from short-term rentals (STR) – with US hosts earning on average $14,000 annually and 43% of them reporting this income helped them maintain their homes49 – research demonstrates broader consequences. Studies show that STR growth reduces long-term housing availability50 and creates measurable price pressures. While individual effects may appear modest (each 1% increase in listings leads to a 0.018% rise in rents and 0.026% increase in house prices),51 these impacts compound significantly in high-demand markets with rapid STR growth potentially contributing to broader affordability challenges alongside other market factors. Balanced policy approaches, such as strategic zoning, housing fund contributions and concentration limits, can help mitigate these effects while preserving the economic benefits STRs provide. Congestion and overcrowding affect urban residents’ daily life. Cultural friction often emerges from behavioural differences between visitors and residents – ranging from noise disturbance to inappropriate conduct at cultural sites. Tourism demand overwhelms infrastructure designed for the resident population, degrading service quality. Yet residents also benefit directly and indirectly from tourists in ways not always visible to them. In the United States, tourism generates $180 billion in tax revenues54 and supports more than 9 million jobs. Specifically, in 2024 New York City visitor spending generated $7 billion in tax revenue, saving each household approximately $2,000 they would otherwise have to pay.55 Growing friction presents several challenges to ensure sustainability. Without effective management, resident opposition escalates, limiting growth opportunities. As communities become displaced from tourism areas, authentic experiences become scarce or manufactured, undermining destination appeal. Balancing stakeholder interest requires sophisticated governance and coordination mechanisms that many destinations lack. Addressing tensions demands multifaceted approaches that combine policy intervention, stakeholder collaboration and technological innovation alongside the recognition that residents’ support is essential for tourism’s long-term viability. Caption: Lake in Beihai Park, Beijing, China Travel and Tourism at a Turning Point: Principles for Transformative Growth 14

Travel and Tourism at a Turning Point 2025