–Accelerated innovation: Rapid adoption of technologies and operating models, from contactless technology to health protocols. –Evolving consumer behaviours: New travel patterns emerged, including interest in outdoor experiences, blended travel and a focus on wellness (a 2022 study found health and wellness to be the reason for travel for one in five travellers).15 As the sector moves beyond recovery, it faces a complex environment. Severe weather events increasingly affect traveller patterns (one-third of Europeans avoided destinations likely to experience extreme weather conditions)16 and growing environmental consciousness (a recent survey showed that environmental impact plays a role in the destination selection of 75% of travellers).17 Geopolitical realignments alter travel patterns and can manifest as social unrest, safety concerns or disruptions that directly affect visitor experiences. According to a recent survey of sector experts, geopolitical risks18 have risen 20 percentage points since September 2024,19 making this one of the major challenges for the sector. Similarly, economic factors (e.g. higher transportation and accommodation costs) are among the main threats seen by experts.20 Finally, technological disruption continues to transform and challenge business models. These factors inform four potential scenarios in the latest World Economic Forum white paper in collaboration with Kearney: Four Scenarios for the Future of Travel and Tourism (July 2025). Rather than being a prediction exercise, this aspires to support stakeholders to prepare for potential futures: A thousand islands world (high geopolitical fragmentation and global economic stagnation)Harmonious horizons (high stability, strong economic growth) Green ascent (rapid sustainability transition, moderate growth) Tech turbulence (accelerated disruption, uneven growth) While distinct, elements within these scenarios will likely manifest simultaneously, creating complex realities for stakeholders to navigate. This reflects what academics describe as “polycrises” – the convergence of multiple interconnected global challenges occurring concurrently.21 Regardless of how these variables unfold, certain fundamental challenges and opportunities require focused attention. The latest projections suggest the sector will contribute $16 trillion in GDP by 203422 and total travel spend will reach $14 trillion.23 The factors stated earlier can accelerate or slow down these projections; nevertheless, significant growth will most likely materialize over time, bringing tremendous potential and responsibility for key stakeholders. How this growth is shaped and materialized will determine whether or not the sector fulfils its potential as a positive force for prosperity, cultural understanding, inclusion and regeneration. Section 1 examines the most important growth areas and tension points that will influence the sector’s evolution, providing a foundation for the guiding principles and action areas that can help stakeholders navigate this complex and dynamic landscape.Scenario 1Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 T&T’s contribution to GDP 2019–2034 FIGURE 2 Note: 1. Compound annual growth rate (CAGR); F = forecast. Source: WTTC2420 15 10 5 2021 2022 2023 2024 2034F 2020 201910.3 5.36.58.09.910.9 0 468101214 +4%16 Total T&T GDP contribution ($ trillions, r eal prices) % of Global GDP1 Travel and Tourism at a Turning Point: Principles for Transformative Growth 7

Travel and Tourism at a Turning Point 2025