De-risk capital investment De-risking capital investment is an immediate function of such offtake agreements. Maritime green fuel projects, whether e-methanol, e-ammonia or advanced biofuels, typically require hundreds of millions of dollars in upfront capital expenditure. Investors and lenders often demand predictable cashflows, which are enabled by 10-year or longer agreements, paired with take-or-pay provisions and indexed pricing mechanisms.19,20 Demand aggregation initiatives pool commitments across shipowners and cargo owners to generate sufficient contracted volumes for FID.21 Evidence from industry shows this dynamic at work: for example, Maersk’s multi-year bio-methanol offtake with LONGi, tied directly to its expanding dual-fuel fleet, demonstrates how offtakes underpin both vessel capex and production investment.22 This helps to lower risk for both suppliers and buyers. These contracts often include price floors, volume guarantees and flexible clauses to adjust to regulatory or market shifts, thereby sharing both opportunity and risk. Suppliers can gain the confidence to finance and build capital-intensive plants, knowing they have committed customers and stable cash flow. Meanwhile, buyers can secure priority access to future low-carbon fuels and may lock in favourable pricing, hedging against future market volatility or regulatory compliance costs. Navigate regulatory volatility Regional regulatory measures are already reshaping economics: for example, the European Union (EU)’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) began covering maritime emissions in 2024,23 while FuelEU Maritime has enforced greenhouse gas intensity limits since January 2025.24 In parallel, the net-zero framework (NZF) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), initially approved in April 2025, seeks to establish a binding global fuel-intensity target, a carbon pricing and credit-trading system and a net- zero fund to scale up zero- or near-zero fuels.25,26 However, its realization has stalled following the Marine Environment Protection Committee’s (MEPC) postponement of a decision until October 2026. With this, many NZF implementation details remain unsettled until at least 2026, leaving crucial factors in the business case for zero or near-zero fuels (ZNZs) uncertain.27 Today the rules/standards are still not predictable enough in some regions and completely lacking in others. Vibeke Rasmussen, Senior Vice President, Product Management and Certification, Yara Clean Ammonia For suppliers and buyers alike, this layering of regional and global rules intensifies exposure to shifting compliance costs. This is precisely where change-in-law provisions and pass-through clauses can matter: by allowing costs from ETS allowances, FuelEU penalties or prospective NZF compliance units to be contractually transferred or shared, they shield project economics from sudden regulatory shocks. Embedding these protections reduces the uncertainty premium applied by financiers and ensures offtake structures remain aligned with evolving global mandates. Enhance projects’ economic viability Early supplies of low-carbon fuel alternatives remain more expensive than conventional marine fuels such as VLSFO.28 For example, while e-methanol is a potential game-changer, its adoption requires carbon pricing, lifecycle standards and green corridors to close the cost gap.29 The buyers do not self-elect but only purchase when incentivized or are obligated to through regulation. Currently, the pricing disparity between e-fuel and traditional oil and gas is the largest issue facing scaling of e-fuel. Talissa Mathieu, Business Development Manager, StormFisher Hydrogen Offtake agreements can help mitigate this disadvantage by distributing the price premium through indexed formulas, floor/ceiling protections or consortium-based arrangements. Innovative structures such as “time-stacked offtakes”30 enable phased commitments that ease buyer exposure while still anchoring supplier financing.31 Turning Challenge into Opportunity: Supplier Voices from Heavy-Emitting Sectors 16

Turning Challenge into Opportunity 2025