Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP)
Ashland · Page 137 of 386 · Adopted 2017-03-07
CLIMATE TRENDS & PRO JECTIONS | CITY OF ASHLAND, OREGON | FINAL REPORT | 8 (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Projections for each metric are discussed further in the
following sections with a focus on the high emissions scenario for the 2080s. Future projections for
streamflow and wildfire are also discussed.
Table 2. Future projected changes from the historical baseline (1950 -2005) for mid - and late - 21st centu ry und er low and high future
emissions scenarios in the City of Ashland . Given are the mean differences and range across an ensemble of 18 downscaled global climate
models.
2050s 2080s
RCP4.5
(low) RCP8.5
(high) RCP4.5
(low) RCP8.5
(high)
Average Temperature
(°F) 4
(2, 5) 5
(3, 6 ) 5
(3, 7) 8
(6, 11)
Hottest Day of Year
(°F) 6
(4, 8) 7
(4, 10) 7
(5, 9) 12
(8, 14)
Warm Spell Duration Index
(Days) 27
(11, 42) 39
(11, 66) 39
(18, 66) 89
(36, 136)
Days above 100°F 6
(3, 10 ) 11
(3, 19) 10
(5, 16) 27
(13, 40)
Days above 110°F 0
(0, 1) 0
(0, 1) 0
(0, 1) 3
(0, 6)
Nights above 60°F 8
(2, 15 ) 15
(5, 27) 13
(3, 24) 38
(11, 68)
Heating Degree Days
(°F-Days) -976
(-473, -1256) -1240
(-717, -1600) -1256
(-641, -1649) -2008
(-1319, -2455)
Cooling Degree Days
(°F-Days) 368
(200, 541) 526
(279, 762) 506
(279, 753) 994
(634, 1455)
Coldest Night of Year (°F) 3
(1, 7) 5
(2, 8) 4
(0, 8) 8
(4, 11)
Frost Days (Days) -41
(-19, -54) -52
(-30, -68) -53
(-25, -72) -80
(-52, -99)
Precipitation
(Inches) -0.2
(-2.2, 2.4) -0.2
(-2.4, 2.3) 0.0
(-1.8, 2.2) 0.4
(-2.7, 3.9)
Extreme Precipitation Frequency
(Days) 0.2
(-0.4, 0.8 ) 0.3
(-0.3, 1.1 ) 0.4
(-0.4, 1.2) 0.7
(-0.5, 2.2)
Extreme Precipitation Amount
(Inches) 0.5
(-0.5, 1.4) 0.6
(-0.4, 2.1) 0.8
(-0.2, 2.0) 1.3
(-0.2, 3.4)
Consecutive Dry Days
(Days) 5
(-2, 17) 5
(-2, 13) 4
(-2, 10) 6
(-8, 21)
Snow water equivalent
(%) -60
(-69, -41) -66
(-83, -47) -71
(-81, -58) -86
(-93, -70)
Implications
Human Health: Increases in temperatures and extreme heat elevates the risk of h eat-related illnesses
(Crimmins et al., 2016) . Increasing wildfire occurrence leading to elevated particulate matter exacerbate
respiratory and cardiovascul ar illnesses (Crimmins et al., 2016). Vector -borne diseases, such as Lyme disease,
may emerge earlier in the season an d expand in range with warmer temperatures (Crimmins et al., 2016).
Rising temperatures also increase the risk of exposure to food -related infections such as Salmonella
(Crimmins et al., 2016). Certain segments of the populations may be more vulnerable to climate impacts,
such as heat extremes. These include: people with low income, immigrants, limited English proficiency
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