According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to have a likely chance of averting the most dangerous of climate change impacts, the world must reduce emissions enough to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius. This amount of emissions is called the world’s “carbon budget” and the world is already on track to spend the remainder of this budget in just three decades.3 The risks of climate change, including sea level rise, forest fires, and water shortages, exponentially increases with every degree of warming above 2 degrees. The following sections detail how Ashland may experience and contribute to climate change in the coming years. 3 Source: World Resources Institute (2014) HOW WILL CLIMATE IMPACT ASHLAND? Regional projections indicate that by the 2080s, Ashland could experience the following climate-driven environmental changes:4 Changes to snowpack and water availability -71 to -86% decline in April 1 snowpack in the Middle Rogue subasin More precipitation as rain instead of snow Earlier spring snowmelt Higher winter streamflow Lower summer streamflowWildfire risk +30% increase in probability of large wildfires** -40 year decrease in average time between fires*** Increased burn acreageHeavy rainfall and drought risk +0.8-1.3 in rainfall increase during the heaviest rain days* +4-6 day increase in the longest dry spells* More winter precipitation Temperature increase and extreme heat +7-12o F increase in the hottest day of the year +39-90 more days a year of warm spells 4 These ranges represent mean projections under the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). Source: Oregon State University, 2016 *Some models show decreases **Source: Stavros, Abatzoglou, Larkin, McKenzie, & Steel (2014). *** Source: Sheehan, Bachelet, & Ferschweiler (2015).Climate Change & Ashland 18 ASHLAND CLIMATE & ENERGY ACTION PLANCLIMATE CHANGE & ASHLAND18

Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP)