Climate and Energy Action Plan (CEAP)

Station 2How Climate Change Affects Ashland City of Ashland Climate and Energy Action Plan Open House What changes could we see in Ashland by the 2080s? The below projections summarize regional climate model projections under the low to high emissions scenarios in the 2080s for Ashland. Wildfire Risk Temperature Increase and Extreme Heat +7-12°F increase in the hottest day of the year+39-90 more days a year of warm spells +30% increase in probability of large wildfires**-40 year decrease in average time between fires*** Increased burn acreage Heavy Rainfall and Drought Risk +0.8-1.3 in increase in rainfall during the heaviest rain days*+4-6 day increase in the longest dry spells* Changes to Snowpack and Water Availability -71 to -86% decline in April 1 snowpackMore preciptation as rain instead of snow Earlier spring snowmelt Higher winter streamflow Lower summer streamflow IN WESTERN US: IN WESTERN WA & OR: **Stavros, Abatzoglou, Larkin, McKenzie, & Steel, 2014 *** Sheehan, Bachelet, & Ferschweiler, 2015*Some models show decreasesIN THE MIDDLE ROGUE SUBBASIN: More winter precipitation