Transportation System Plan 2018-2038

and transportation sy stem that provides greater travel opportunities to residents bey ond reliance on the single occupancy vehicle. Historic Trends Population and em ployment in the Rogue Valley region have increased significantly over the past 40 years. Taken as a whole, Jackson County ’s population has grown from 73,926 in 1960 to a 181,269 persons in 2000. This represents a growth of 145 pe rcent over the 40-y ear period. During the y ears from 1995 to 2000, the County ’s population grew by 16,869 persons or 10.3 percent. Of particular significance for the Transportation System Plan is the growth in persons of retirem ent age who m ay increase the demand for viable m obility alternatives to the au tomobile. Between 1970 and 1990, the population group over 65 more than doubled in Jackson County . In the MPO region, this age group m akes up a relatively large portion of the population (17 percent in Medfor d, 14 percent in Central Point and 27 percent in Phoenix). Within the City of Medford, the population has grown from 24,425 in 1960 to 63,154 in 2000, representing an increase of nearly 160 percent. During the y ears between 1995 and 2000, Medford’ s population grew by 8,064 persons or 14. 6 percent. This is less than the 29.9 percent growth experienced by Central Point during the sam e tim e period but higher than the county wide rate. Employment activity in the Rogue Valley has seen a dram atic shift away from a resource-based econom y to an econom y that is m ore heavily dependent on trade and service em ployment6. Between 1995 and 2005 the Oregon Departm ent of Em ployment projects an increase of 16 percent in overall employment in the County , with employment in trade expected to grow by 23 percent and em ployment in the service industry expected to grow by 26 percent. Growth in tourism has had a significant im pact on the local econom y. In 1981, only 9 percent of visitors cam e to the region as a vacation destination (as opposed to a stop-over on the way to somewhere else). By 1990, this figure was up to 47 percent, and by 1995, 58 percent of visitors were com ing to the region as a vacation destination. The change in the local econom y from largely manufacturing and resource-based em ployment to service and trade employment has impacted the region’ s transportation sy stem in a significant way . Typically , industrial em ployment generates about 2.5 trips per em ployee each day , while retail employment generates 15 trips per em ployee. For exam ple, 100 industrial em ployees would generate about 250 daily trips while 100 retail em ployees would generate 1,500 daily trips (this includes trips m ade by the employee and all others com ing to and from the employment site). Thus, the sam e level of overall employment, but a change in the ty pe of em ployment and its location, significantly affects travel demand on the road sy stem . Residents have clearly seen changes in the transportation sy stem resulting from the changing econom ic makeup of the com munity . The downtown has declined significantly as a portion of the regional em ployment base leaving a large am ount of available and unused public infrastructure. At the sam e tim e, large areas along m ajor local street s and state highway s have becom e commercial shopping districts, and in turn have reduced the f unction of the transportation sy stem and created the demand for expensive new projects. Decisions about where and how the com munity chooses to grow, and how transportation investm ents are managed, greatly influence com munity livability and future perform ance of the transportation sy stem . Future Projections Data analy zed for the 2001-2023 Rogue Valley Regional Transportation Plan suggests that population in the Rogue Valley MPO region is expected to in crease by over 37 percent between 2000 and 2023, while employment is expected to increase by over 41 percen t. Within the City of Medford, population is 6 2001-2023 Regi onal Transport ation Pl an, Rogue Val ley MPO, Apri l 25, 2002, page 5-2. Medford Transportatio n System Pl an 4-2 Transportation and Land Use