expected to increase by nearly 31 percent from 63,154 in 2000 to 82,879 in 2023. Em ployment is expected to increase by 39 percent from 38,858 to 53,944. The 2001-2023 Rogue Valley Regional Transportation Plan made a num ber of technical assum ptions and policy decisions about future com munity growth in or der to develop a transportation plan that balances many competing objectives. A key assum ption and decision m ade in the regional planning process is that a large proportion of future developm ent will be dir ected to areas that can be well-served by transit – including the downtown, transit corridors, m ixed-use areas, and transit-oriented districts or TODs. Table 4-1 presents m ore detailed inform ation about anticip ated growth in population, housing and em ployment in the City of Medford. Between 2000 and 2023, the share of City population that is anticipated to reside in a TOD will grow by 86 percent. The largest share of new TOD population is forecast in the SE Medford TOD – the area with the greatest opportunity to absorb new developm ent. Population in the Downtown TOD is expected to grow only slightly as this area is largely fully deve loped. Population growth in the Delta Waters and West Medford TODs is expected to be m ore closel y aligned with city wide population growth. On an average, population in TODs in the City of Medford is expected to nearly double over today ’s levels. These are only forecasts of anticipated growth patterns; achieving the forecasts and the attendant benefits to the transportation sy stem will require conscious and specific changes to developm ent policies and practices in Medford. Table 4-1 Population, Housing and Employment Grow th Projections in Medford Data T ype 2000 2005 2010 2015 2023 % Increase 2000-2023 City Population 63,154 64,979 71,138 75,036 82,879 31.2% City Dwelling Units 24,245 26,016 28,565 30,225 33,451 37.9% City Employ ment 38,858 41,449 43,669 46,751 53,944 38.8% - Industrial 4,750 5,067 5,074 5,432 6,267 31.9% - Retail 10,252 10,936 12,096 12,949 14,942 45.7% - Service 15,338 16,361 17,905 19,169 22,118 44.2% - Other 8,518 9,085 8,594 9,201 10,617 24.6% Employment growth in the City of Medford is expect ed to be higher in the retail and service sectors than in other employment categories. Between 2000 and 2023, current retail em ployment is expected to increase by over 45 percent, while current service em ployment is expected to increase by approxim ately 44 percent. Industrial em ployment is expected to increase at a lower rate, growing only 32 percent, while other em ployment sectors (including agriculture) is e xpected to grow by only 25 percent. Growth of employment in the Downtown TOD, as well as the other T ODs will be an im portant part of the strategy to reduce vehicle m iles of travel Vehicle Travel Demand Forecasts of vehicle travel dem and were prepared for the Medford Transportation System Plan using the regional travel dem and m odel deve loped and maintained by the Rogue Valley MPO. The assum ptions and structure of this m odel are docum ented in the 2001-2023 Rogue Valley Regional Transportation Plan. In general and regardless of identified strategies to build m ixed-use developm ent and transit-oriented districts, significant growth in m otor vehicle traffic is anticipated on Interstate 5, Highway 99, Crater Medford Transportatio n System Pl an 4-3 Transportation and Land Use

Transportation System Plan 2018-2038