Transportation System Plan 2018-2038

addition, the TSP is a key com ponent of the City ’s plan for encouraging com pact urban developm ent to reduce vehicle m iles of travel and im prove existing air quality problem s. Modal plans for walking, bicy cling, transit, autom obile, rail, air transportation, and freight truck were developed as part of the TSP and include action plans for projects, program s, policies and ordinances. These m odal plans are founded on the guidance provided by the 2002 com munity visioning process that lead to the Vision Strategic Plan . The funding and im plem entation discussion includes a sy nthesis of the m odal plans with an em phasis on identify ing the tim ing and costs associated with th e necessary improvem ents, and the availability of transportation revenues to carry out the stra tegies. Included is a brief sum mary of: • Transportation revenue forecasts a nd anticipated revenue shortfall; • Strategies for project funding and tim ing (e.g., short, m edium or long term ). Transportation Revenue Forecasts Based on data provided by the City ’s Public Works a nd Finance Departm ents, total revenue expected to be received from all existing and reasonably predictable transportation re venue sources is projected to be approxim ately $195 m illion over the next 20 years1. Of this am ount, slightly more than $171 m illion are needed for fixed expenditures including operations (including staff, indirect, non-road capital expenditures), repay ment of the revenue bonds issued fo r the 17-project list, street m aintenance (between 65 and 70 percent of all fixed expenditures), and local m atch for the South Medford Interchange improvem ent project. This leaves about $24 m illion. Coupled with the expected revenue carry over from fiscal year 2003, a total of $34 m illion is expected to be available for transportation im provem ent projects over the 20-y ear planning period. A review of the project lists in the m odal plans (which are sum marized by time period anticipated for implem entation in Chapter 13 of the TSP) indicates th at transportation funding needs for the City are estim ated at nearly $120 m illion. This leaves a ga p between available funding from existing sources and transportation needs identified for im plem entati on during the 20-y ear planning period of about $86 million. Bey ond these needs, an addition $82 m illion in projects has been identified for potential implem entation bey ond the 20-y ear planning period or if significant additional transportation revenues becom e available. Most of the revenue available for transportation improvem ents would be concentrated over the next ten to fifteen y ears. Under the City ’s adopted ordinances for SDCs and street utility fees, annual revenues from both program s are scheduled to decrease beginning in 2014. SDC revenue is scheduled to decrease by 50 percent between 2014 and 2017 when th e revenue bond repay ments are com plete. The street utility fund is slated to decrease by 35 percent between 2016 and 2019. Without an increase in transportation revenue, it is anticipated that, beginning in about 2019, existing revenues would be insufficient to maintain current levels of transpor tation operations and m aintenance. No revenue would be available for capital im provem ents during the latter portion of the 20- year planning period. Without additional revenue increases, m any of the basic safety , congestion relief, urban upgrade or m ulti-m odal (e.g., bicy cle and pedestrian) im provem ent projects that have been identif ied in the m odal plans could not be constructed. Based on policy direction received during developm ent of the TSP and to partially fund the anticipated revenue gap, it was assum ed that increases of 3 percent per y ear for the entire 20-y ear planning period 1 Per spreadsheets from Cory Crebbin, P ublic Works di rector dat ed 6/20/03. Grant s and ot her m iscellaneous i ncome includes assum ed HUD (CBDG) and CM AQ grant fundi ng for si dewal k improvem ents; a grant from ODOT for installation of fi ber opt ic com munications equi pment; and approxi mately $600,000 from the Medford Urban Renewal Agency (MURA) as t hat agency ’s share of t ransport ation improvem ents in the downt own core. Medford Transportation System Plan 1-27 Introduction and Executive Summary