From: Gregory Brown <

From: Gregory Brown < To: undisclosed -recipients:; Bcc: [email protected] Subject: Greg Brown's Weekend Reading and Other Things.... 1/04/2015 Date: Sun, 04 Jan 2015 08:35:46 +0000 Attachments: The_Best_Run_States_in_America_24-7_Wall_St„Dec„3„2014.docx; The_Real_Reason_Richer_People_Marry_Andrew_l_Cherlin_NYT_Dec„6„2014.docx; Old_Debts,Fresh_Pain,Weak_Laws_Offer Debtors_Little_Protection_Paul_Kiel_and_Chr is_Amold_ProPublica,Sept._16,2014.docx; Joe Cocker bio.docx; Forget_College„This_h_the_Expense_New_Parents_Should_Befreaking_Out_About _Jac kie Zimmermann_Money_Dec„8,2014.docx; The Predator_on_the_Upper of East_Side_Mark_Oppenehimer_The_Alantic_Dec.18.2014 .docx; German_researchers_discover a_flaw_that_could_let_anyone_listen_to_your_cell_calls_Cr aig_Timberg_TWP_12.18.14.docx; Scalia on Retirees Losing_Their Healthinsurance Nan Aron Huff Post Dec 19„2014. docx Inline-Images: image.png; image(1).png; image(2).png; image(3).png; image(4).png; image(5).png; image(6).png; image(7).png; image(8).png; image(9).png; image(10).png; image(11).png; image(12).png DEAR FRIEND Nobody Is Truly Ready For Rise Of Seas Inline image 1 EFTA01197981 Several weeks ago the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and final report. The reports suggests that extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems is causing more and more severe disasters. The AR5 explores the challenge of understanding and managing the risks of climate extremes to advance climate change adaptation. Weather- and climate-related disasters have social as well as physical dimensions. Some types of extreme weather and climate events have increased in frequency and/or magnitude causing populations and assets at risk to increased, with consequences for disastrous outcomes. The AR5 says that opportunities for managing risks of weather- and climate-related disasters exist or can be developed at any scale, local to international as long there is transformation and fundamental change on local, regional, national and international basis. Most troubling is that the reports says that these changes are moving far too slow and in a number of areas not at all. One of the looming disasters is the rise of the oceans/seas which nobody seems to truly be ready for even though there have been decades of flood warning in a wash of more general global warming coverage. And the sea level figures in the report, while not new to experts (and, by many expert accounts, dangerously lowballed), were nonetheless remarkable — and worthy of urgent reflection. The report warns that coastal property and infrastructure could be a foot lower in just a few decades than is the case today, portending an unprecedented crisis for which the nation appears to be frightfully ill-prepared. U.S. coastal cities, established in centuries past when seas were 8 inches lower than they are today, are now flooding regularly during high tides. Despite decades of research and warnings, little has been done to defend against the slow-motion marine invasion of landlubbers' territory. "The statistics make clear that people keep moving to the coast, indeed, that people keep moving to Miami, even as the flooding there becomes more regular," Bill McKibben, a prominent writer who has dedicated himself to raising the profile of climate change, told Climate Central. "I think people imagine that this problem will happen slowly, but it's already well underway." And although preparedness is improving, the pace seems to rival the gradual rise of the oceans. A hodgepodge of local, state and national initiatives, while so far woefully insufficient to protect infrastructure and neighborhoods from swelling flood risks, are starting to attempt to adapt to meet the challenges they present. Strategies include efforts to restore marshlands to buffer floods, to raise seawalls to keep pace with sea level, and to retreat from coastlines. The last time the IPCC published a climate assessment, in 2007, climate adaptation was little more than an abstract idea. Today, it's an emerging reality, oftentimes framed as "resilience." Resilience is a concept that describes the boosting of defenses against storms surges, heat waves and other weather disasters, be they amped by greenhouse gases or entirely natural. "I would say that nobody is truly ready for projected levels of future rise," said Laura Tam, a climate adaptation expert at the San Francisco -based urban planning think tank SPUR. "But cities are light- EFTA01197982 years more aware of the threats and challenges of sea level rise than they were just five years ago. You're seeing many of the densely populated, coastal urban areas taking on major community -wide planning efforts to understand vulnerability and address risks." Even if the world virtually stopped burning fossil fuels, and rapidly switched over to non-polluting forms of energy, the IPCC's new assessment of climate science warns that, between 2046 and 2065, seas would "likely" be between 6 and 13 inches higher than they were between 1986 and 2005. And that's the best-case scenario envisioned in the report. Under the heaviest of four pollution scenarios evaluated, the likely heights of the seas during the same two-decade period would be between 8 inches and 15 inches higher than they were a couple of decades ago. Projections for century's end are higher still. That could more than double the amount of sea level rise since the 1800s, which will lead to what the Union of Concerned Scientists has described as "incessant" flooding in scores of coastal U.S. cities in the coming decades — unless protective measures are put in place. So far, coastal planning efforts to better cope with rising seas remain just that — planning efforts. Construction of new coastal defenses and implementation of managed retreats from vulnerable shorelines will, for the most part, come later. The communities that are planning ahead for sea level rise, however, are often relying on low or short-term projections, said Jessica Grannis, the adaptation program manager at Georgetown Climate Center. The center maintains a database of Florida's climate adaptation efforts on its website. I think a lot of people are purposefully not using the high-range scenarios, because they're so catastrophic,"Grannis said. Despite their high profile, Grannis cautions against relying on the IPCC's projections, which she described as "pretty low" compared with some other forecasts. "A lot of folks rely on the IPCC, but they tend to take this very conservative consensus -based approach, and they don't include some of the more up-to-date science," she said. With sea level rise planning so new in America, even just starting to brace for understated projections would seem to be an important, if inadequate, step up from when the IPCC's last assessment was published. How many Sandys and Katrinas do we have to endure before change their ways, build stringent flood defences or move? The earth has warmed nearly o.8 degrees Celsius over the last century and climate scientists are confident that the biggest factor in this increase is the release of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning. It is almost certain that we will see a rise of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) before 2100, and a three-degree rise (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher is a possibility. The impacts over such a short period would be huge. The longer we put off corrective action, the more disruptive the outcome is likely to be. It is my pleasure and duty as a scientist and civil servant to discuss the challenge of climate change with elected officials. My colleagues and I do our best to transmit what we know and what we think is likely to happen. The facts and accepted theories are fundamental to understanding climate change, and they are too important to get wrong or trivialize. Some difficult decisions lie ahead for us humans. We should debate our options armed with the best information and ideas that science can provide. And if we don't act our children's children will suffer unimaginable consequences. Holy Cow!!! EFTA01197983 Right before Christmas I was talking with our handyman who told me that he had two young children — one is three years old and the other is an eleven month old infant and because both were girls he and his wife were considering having another — hopefully a boy. Immediately, I asked if he had thought this out, because from experience I know that children are expensive — and today more expensive than ever. So a couple of days later while watching the Today Show on NBC, I was drawn to the segment on how expensive day-care has become — thinking back to Jeremy, realizing that this could be one of the reasons why he is working a second-job as a handyman — and if this is not the reason today, it most likely will be soon. Forget college -- the new sticker shock for parents today is day care. The cost of day care now rivals the price tag for college tuition in some parts of the U.S. and can be a "crippling burden" for parents of young children, a new report by Child Care Aware of America warns. If that's not daunting enough, the report released Thursday also notes that infant center-based child care costs twice as much as the average amount families across the country spend on food, and exceeds transportation costs in almost every region in the United States. And for those with two kids, child care costs in 23 states and D.C. exceed the average housing costs for homeowners with a mortgage. The report notes that the average cost for child care varies widely according to state. But if you live in the Northeast ($22,513), Midwest ($17,258) or South ($15,409), expect childcare to be the highest single household expense on your budget. Though still expensive in the West ($17,941), childcare there comes in second behind housing. When the costs were compared to median income for a married couple, New York topped the list for least affordable center-based care across three different age groups: infant care (16% of income), four year olds (13%) and before/after school care for school-aged kids (12%). In fact, the average annual cost for infant day care was higher than a year's tuition at a four-year public college in 3o states and the District of Columbia. For parents of two children, full time day care is the EFTA01197984 highest single household expense in the Northeast, Midwest and South. And those hefty prices don't even "guarantee a quality environment," the report found, noting that child care providers work in one of the most poorly-paid professions in the country. New parents may live in fear of what they'll pay for their child to attend college — but the report shows that a nearer-term expense may have an even bigger impact on their wallets. In 3o states plus Washington, D.C., the report states that the average annual cost of enrolling an infant in a center-based daycare program is more than a year's worth of tuition and fees at a public college in that state. Least affordable states for childcare State Avg. cost of center-based enfant care Meehan income for named couple Percent of Income Oregon 513 452 572 226 1860% New York 514.939 590.725 16.50% Minnesota 513.876 589.608 15.50% Massachusetts 516.430 5109 090 15.10% Colorado 512.736 585 137 1500% California 112.068 581.484 1480% HMO'S $12697 585.715 14.80% Hawaii 512.473 $86.699 14.40% Washington 512.108 584 464 14.30% Kansas 510.518 577.034 13.70% Source Cm/Kea/kerne/ Arrence The rankings are based on the cost of child care as a percentage of the state median income for a two-parent _lam* Almost ii million kids under 5 go to day care in the U.S. each week, Child Care Aware of America said. Most parents aren't prepared for these costs, a separate study from Care.com released this April found. Three quarters of families surveyed in that poll were surprised or overwhelmed by the costs of childcare, and 42% don't budget for it. So what can a parent or parent-to-be do to get ready for this overwhelming expense? We reached out to Donna Levin, co-founder of Care.com, and Carmen Rita Wong, financial contributor for Babycenter.com, for tips. Start Budgeting Early The moment you know you're expecting is the time to start saving and budgeting, Levin said. But before you can do that, you'll need to determine the type of care that best suits your family's needs and resources. Options range from family-based daycare in someone's home on the cheapest end ($127 a week on average, according to Care.com) to nannies ($472 a week). Online resources can help you navigate the pros and cons. Another option that parents-to-be often consider is having one person cut back his or her work hours or take time off. That may save on childcare expenses in the short term, but you need to consider the ramifications in the long-term, warns Wong. Working parents have to weigh the opportunity cost of leaving the workforce—e.g. how much knowledge will you lose? How much potential income growth will you lose? How tough will it be to break back in? Take Advantage of Tax Breaks EFTA01197985 Depending on your circumstances, you might qualify for the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit. The total credit can be up to 35% of up to $3,000 in qualifying expenses paid to care for a child under 13 while you're working (or $6,000 for two children), but the exact amount is based on adjusted gross income. "Many folks land on the cusp of qualifying year after year," Wong says. "It's important to realize just how close you are as you may be able to find deductions that can get you under the limit and save you more." Also check in with your HR department to see if your company offers a dependent -care flexible spending account. This allows you to set aside up to $5,000 pretax toward qualifying expenses like daycare, preschool and some summer day camps. (While you're at it, see if they offer any other child care help, says Levin. "A lot of great employers are providing child care subsidies or discounts to childcare centers.") Share in Care They say it takes a village to raise a child — and as a mom, Wong can attest to the money-saving benefits of establishing a strong social network in your local area. "Though you may save $1,000 a year with all the tax credits, you can save another $.4000 by utilizing neighborhood networks," she says. You might be able to find a parenting group in your area on platforms like The Big Tent Network and Meetup. Such sites allow moms and dads to find play dates or learning opportunities, and also let parents establish relationships that can become helpful when looking for child care resources. Nanny shares are one good example. With this kind of arrangement, multiple families pay for one nanny, therefore reducing the cost of care. Often, nannies will watch the kids at the same time, but families can also establish schedules that are based around each family's individual need. Additionally, establishing a connection with parent group is a great resource if the nanny gets sick or is unavailable. When parents can say, "If you watch my kids while I do errands, I'll watch yours after school," it can be really beneficial for all parties involved, Levin says. Kids also love it, because in the long run "they're just one big play date." EFTA01197986 Last month Mark Oppenheimer wrote a searing piece in The Atlantic - The Predator on the Upper of East Side — with a sub-heading — Nearly 5o years ago, a penniless monk arrived in Manhattan, where he began to build an unrivaled community offollowers—and a reputation for sexual abuse. The ongoing accusations against him expose a dark corner of the Buddhist tradition. It is the story of the rise and spectacular fall of Eido Shimano Roshi, founder of the first Buddhist monasteries and one of the most influential leaders in the American Zen community. One of the Achilles heel of gurus, abbots, and pastors everywhere -- sleeping with their parishioners, worshippers and/or students. And this is no difference in Buddhism as the "Shimano Problem" which came to light when Shimano, the founder and abbot of the New York Zen Studies Society, one of the oldest Buddhist institutions in the West, and its 1,400-acre Dai Bosatsu retreat in the Catkills until he resigned from both in September 2010. Nearly 50 years ago, a penniless monk arrived in Manhattan, where he began to build an unrivaled community of followers — and a reputation for sexual abuse. Even though he's headed the former since 1965 and was 77 years old at the time, he didn't retire or go quietly and the ongoing accusations against him expose a dark corner of the Buddhist tradition. Before we explore its prevalence in Buddhist America, let's take a moment to examine "how the swans came to the lake," to borrow the title of a history of the Zen Buddhism diaspora, if you will, to the United States by Rick Fields (Shambhala, 1992). Since Buddhism originated in India and moved east to China and then Japan, Korea, and Southeast Asia, it was probably as inevitable a migration across the Pacific as Homo erectus following the game out of Africa and populating Asia and Europe. Also since Eastern teachers were often stuck with students sent to them by their families, they were happy to find students in the West who, stoked in part by American traditions such as Ralph Waldo Emerson's Transcendentalism, sought out the teachers on their own and were eager to initiate practice. As such the extent to which Buddhism needed to be Westernized became a central issue. American Buddhist centers may appear to have integrated East and West seamlessly, but many obstacles were surmounted during their formative years. Looldng back, rituals, practice, and teachings may have been the least of it. Instead, due to mixed signals between the two cultures and, however much a cliché, culture shock on the part of the Easterners, many American students wound up emotionally and EFTA01197987 spiritually wounded by Buddhist teachers -- Eastern and American. Besides, of course, the good names of the most highly regarded forms of Buddhism in America, Tibetan and Zen, were sullied. Possibly the most notorious perpetrator of spiritual abuses was Trungpa Rinpoche, who, while still a teenager, headed several large Tibetan monasteries until, like the Dalai Lama, he was forced out by the 1959 Chinese invasion. Once in the West, his gift for teaching facilitated the founding of what has become known as the Vajradhatu (his U.S. meditation centers), Shambhala Meditation Centers around the world, and the Naropa Institute (now University). But his hedonistic lifestyle and provocative "crazy wisdom" both mystified and alienated. Trungpa died a grisly alcoholic's death, but his successor was arguably even more dissolute. The claim to fame of Osel Tendzin, an American from New Jersey, was not only seducing students, but becoming infected with HIV and failing to tell those with whom he engaged in sexual behavior. This scenario was paralleled by two American Zen teachers: the womanizing Richard Baker, the abbot of the San Francisco Zen Center, and his successor, Reb Anderson, who gained fame by appropriating the gun from a suicide victim and later wielding it in public. As for Shimano, his serial philandering was a source of concern for decades. The "Shimano Problem" came to light four years ago a number of Buddhist scholars used the opportunity to explore the subject of Buddhism's integration into the West. As well as publicly discussing the hedonistic behavior of some of the leading figures in the Zen community. "As for Shimano, his serial philandering was a source of concern for decades,"said Robert Aitken, a long-time colleague Roshi. Aitken excuses this lack of interest by Shimano's Zen masters in Japan to cultural differences between America and Japan, writing "it is important to understand that mental illness and character pathology are viewed tolerantly in Japan." Aitken infers that he believes that Shimano may be suffering some form of mental illness or pathology, calling him "someone in a different dimension altogether." Nevertheless, Shimano's Japanese teachers "felt responsible for him, and were not prepared to disgrace him by recalling him to Japan." Well Mark Oppenheimer doesn't do that. His article is an abridged version of his eBook. He chronicles Shimano's arrival at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport on December 31, 1964, New Year's Eve when he was 32 years old where he stayed with a couple on Central Park West in Manhattan. And how he walked the streets of New York building a following, his sangha, his Zen community, adding one or two people a day. These followers began bringing in money. Within the first several years, an anonymous donor gave enough to purchase a carriage house on East 67th Street; in 1968 the renovated building became the home of what Shimano named the New York Zendo (a zendo is a hall for meditation). And another devoted student, Dorris Carlson, the widow of the founder of Xerox, gave him $1 million, later doubling the donation to $2 million. With Carlson's money, Shimano purchased a 1,400-acre property, in the Catskills town of Livingston Manor, that had once belonged to Harriet Beecher Stowe's brother James. There, Shimano led the construction of Dai Bosatsu Zendo that opened on July 4, 1976. `This is for you to establish your monastery in the country,"Shimano said she told him, "where regardless of the racial background, national background, man or woman, everybody could come, and could practice meditation." On the night of June 21, 2010, a Monday night, about 20 members of the sangha were eating in the dining hall at Dai Bosatsu, a student Daphna, who was then in her late 20s, angrily confessed that she was having a secret prolonged sexual relationship with Shimano. Shimano's response was that sex EFTA01197988 with students is not a violation of Buddhist precepts. And by sleeping with a student, he might have been doing her a favor. Daphna's allegations, it turned out, were not the first hints that Shimano wasn't the man his followers hoped he was, and that the world he had built was not what it seemed. One week earlier, the Zen Studies Society board had met to discuss allegations of several decades of sexual impropriety, allegations that had surfaced on the Internet. The charges were damning, and well sourced, and Shimano had not denied them. And after an Oppenheimer on August 20, 2010 Shimano was forced to step down. Oppenheimer says that today, one could reasonably assert that of the 30 or 4o important Zen centers in the country, at least 10 have employed head teachers who have been accused of groping, propositioning, seducing, or otherwise exploiting students. Nobody is saying that Eido Shimano is a sexual criminal. He is not alleged to have had sex with underage women, or to have physically forced any woman to perform a sexual act (it's been alleged he may have kissed or groped women after they tried to pull away from him). In our conversations, Shimano admitted to having sex with some students, 'far fewer" than 12 as he put it. He would not answer questions about specific women, and he never replied to specific questions submitted to his lawyer. But his critics say that regardless of the numbers, or one's definition of consent, Shimano is guilty of a kind of spiritual malpractice. They say that he took advantage of his spiritual power — his authority, his charisma — to persuade women to do things that they did not want to do, and that when he eventually ignored or left them, they sometimes lost their faith, even their minds. Right now, Shimano is not permitted on any Zen Studies Society property, and his artifacts have not been returned to him. Membership at the Zen Studies Society is down; Chayat will not confirm or deny the rumor that she has had the East 67th Street building appraised for a possible sale. Shimano continues to live with his wife in the apartment that they may or may not own; he occasionally sits, at various sites in Manhattan, with a small, loyal group of followers. In a statement he released this past July 4, he said that he is beginning work on a translation of the correspondence between two of his late teachers, Soen Nakagawa and Nyogen Senzaki. I invite you to read the attached article by Mark Oppenheimer in The Atlantic - The Predator on the Upper of East Side — as it is truly interesting and a great read.... Nothing Is Secret Anymore EFTA01197989 My father use to have a saying that you should never say something about someone that you wouldn't say to their face, write anything that you would be embarrassed if it was posted on the front page of the newspaper, do anything that you can't tell your Mother and take a picture that you can't show your father. But that was before the digital age and as a result of the digital age of cell phones and the Internet I would like to add that today you should always understand that every digital photo, recording and transmission via cellphone and or the Internet is no longer sacrosanct/secret. Because German researchers have discovered security flaws that could let hackers, spies and criminals listen to private phone calls and intercept text messages on a potentially massive scale — even when cellular networks are using the most advanced encryption now available. The flaws, to be reported at a hacker conference in Hamburg this month, are the latest evidence of widespread insecurity on 837, the global network that allows the world's cellular carriers to route calls, texts and other services to each other. Experts say it's increasingly clear that SS7, first designed in the 198os, is riddled with serious vulnerabilities that undermine the privacy of the world's billions of cellular customers. The flaws discovered by the German researchers are actually functions built into 557 for other purposes — such as keeping calls connected as users speed down highways, switching from cell tower to cell tower — that hackers can repurpose for surveillance because of the lax security on the network. Those skilled at the myriad functions built into 557 can locate callers anywhere in the world, listen to calls as they happen or record hundreds of encrypted calls and texts at a time for later decryption. There also is potential to defraud users and cellular carriers by using 557 functions, the researchers say. These vulnerabilities continue to exist even as cellular carriers invest billions of dollars to upgrade to advanced 3G technology aimed, in part, at securing communications against unauthorized eavesdropping. But even as individual carriers harden their systems, they still must communicate with each other over 837, leaving them open to any of thousands of companies worldwide with access to the network. That means that a single carrier in Congo or Kazakhstan, for example, could be used to hack into cellular networks in the United States, Europe or anywhere else. "It's like you secure the front door of the house, but the back door is wide open," said Tobias Engel, one of the German researchers. EFTA01197990 Engel, founder of Sternraute, and Karsten Nohl, chief scientist for Security Research Labs, separately discovered these security weaknesses as they studied SSA networks in recent months, after The Washington Post reported the widespread marketing of surveillance systems that use SS7 networks to locate callers anywhere in the world. The Post reported that dozens of nations had bought such systems to track surveillance targets and that skilled hackers or criminals could do the same using functions built into SS7. (The term is short for Signaling System 7 and replaced previous networks called SS6, SS5, etc.) The researchers did not find evidence that their latest discoveries, which allow for the interception of calls and texts, have been marketed to governments on a widespread basis. But vulnerabilities publicly reported by security researchers often turn out to be tools long used by secretive intelligence services, such as the National Security Agency or Britain's GCHQ, but not revealed to the public. "Many of the big intelligence agencies probably have teams that do nothing but SS7 research and exploitation," said Christopher Soghoian, principal technologist for the ACLU and an expert on surveillance technology. "They've likely sat on these things and quietly exploited them." The German researchers found two distinct ways to eavesdrop on calls using SS7 technology. In the first, commands sent over SSA could be used to hijack a cell phone's "forwarding" function -- a service offered by many carriers. Hackers would redirect calls to themselves, for listening or recording, and then onward to the intended recipient of a call. Once that system was in place, the hackers could eavesdrop on all incoming and outgoing calls indefinitely, from anywhere in the world. The second technique requires physical proximity but could be deployed on a much wider scale. Hackers would use radio antennas to collect all the calls and texts passing through the airwaves in an area. For calls or texts transmitted using strong encryption, such as is commonly used for advanced 3G connections, hackers could request through SS7 that each caller's carrier release a temporary encryption key to unlock the communication after it has been recorded. Nohl demonstrated the ability to collect and decrypt a text message using the phone of a German senator, who cooperated in the experiment. But Nohl said the process could be automated to allow massive decryption of calls and texts collected across an entire city or a large section of a country, using multiple antennas. The issue of cell phone interception is particularly sensitive in Germany because of news reports last year, based on documents provided by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden, that a phone belonging to Chancellor Angela Merkel was the subject of NSA surveillance. The techniques of that surveillance have not become public, though Nohl said that the SS7 hacking method that he and Engel discovered is one of several possibilities. U.S. embassies and consulates in dozens of foreign cities, including Berlin, are outfitted with antennas for collecting cellular signals, according to reports by German magazine Der Spiegel, based on documents released by Snowden. Many cell phone conversations worldwide happen with either no encryption or weak encryption. The move to 3G networks offers far better encryption and the prospect of private communications, but the hacking techniques revealed by Nohl and Engel undermine that possibility. Carriers can potentially guard their networks against efforts by hackers to collect encryption keys, but it's unclear how many have done so. One network that operates in Germany, Vodafone, recently began blocking such requests after Nohl reported the problem to the company two weeks ago. Nohl and Engel also have discovered new ways to track the locations of cell phone users through SS7. The Post story, in August, reported that several companies were offering governments worldwide the ability to find virtually any cell phone user, virtually anywhere in the world, by learning the location of their cell phones through an SS7 function called an "Any Time Interrogation" query. EFTA01197991 Most of us accept the fact that the NSA, CIA, Israeli, Chinese and Soviet surveillance organizations routinely monitor and intercept Internet and cellular traffic around the world. But it appears that even lowly North Korea has the ability to do the same like the big boys — i.e. Sony. We also know that major store chains employ sophisticated technologies to monitor/track our activities in their stores and shopping centers. And no matter how many times I scrub my computer's registry pop-up ads re-occur based on my digital profile. Therefore I urge everyone to remember my father's edict of not saying or doing things that you may later regret when repeated and know that everything you say or do on your cellphone and Internet can be stolen because the older I get the more I realize how smart my Dad was. For more information please take the time to read Craig Timberg's Washington Post article - German researchers discover ailaw that could let anyone listen to your cell calls. ****** The Next Economic Disaster Ten countries comprise 65 percent of Global GDP - if you expand it to the top twenty, they comprise 80 percent of Global GDP Rest of the World, 0.20 Canada, 0.02 Russia, 0.03 Italy, 0.03, United France, Germany, 0.05 azil, 0.04 Kingdom, 0.Cri 0.04 While recently trolling for interesting subjects to write about I ran across the new book by Richard Vague, The Next Economic Disaster: Why It's Coming and How to Avoid It - who argues that it is in fact the rapid expansion of private rather than public debt that constrains growth and sparks economic calamities like the financial crisis of 2008. Relying on the findings of a team of economists, The Next Economic Disaster pinpoints that the Great Depression of the 1930s, the economic collapse of the past decade, and many other sharp downturns around the world were all preceded by a spike in privately held debt. But what was really interesting was a video discussion hosted by Managing Editor of The Atlantic Steve Clemons and the New America Foundation's Economic Growth Program Director, Sherle R. Schwenninger on the current state of the US economy, assessments of the global debt and growth picture and responses to the threat of yet another financial disaster. EFTA01197992 Although the discussion focused on the role that public debt and debt-fueled public spending play in economic growth and that financial crisis can be predicted and prevented, but what sparked my interest was how that from 1997 to 2007 more than $14 trillion was pumped into the U.S. economy through public and private debt with the overwhelming lion share going to the later. Vague argues and most people agree that the financial crisis of 2008 was caused by the rapid buildup of private debt (consumer debt and business debt). And today we are still highly leveraged. He argues that whenever you see buildup of (20% or more) private debt to GDP you see a road to crisis. Because you have built too much of something and consequently created too many bad loans. And that growth is going to have to slow down until you absorbed the overcapacity. Finally the triggering events such as market crashes and bank failures are not the problem they are the result of the problem. The problem starts usually five or so years before with runaway lending until the party ends... In 1950 private debt to GDP was 55%. Today it is 156%. Yet this is not unique to the United States because in 1970 the 22 largest economies were in the range of 50% to r00% range of private debt to GDP and today these same countries are between r00% to 125 and even more than 200% of private debt to GDP. The whole world is over-leveraged. Portugal currently is 255% while Spain is 216% in private debt to GDP, and in both countries government debt is not a problem. The final consequence of over-leveraged private debt is that instead of buying new cars, clothes or going to dinners or vacations, people are diverting these monies to service a too high level of debt. Vague's conclusion is that this is the reason why we are experiencing a lackluster recovery we and Europe both with the situation more acute in Europe and Japan. To repair or prevent these types of crisis a broad scale program to restructure these loans would be the quickest although the hardest politically to do. And to prevent runaway loans, all we have to do is to make sure that banks maintain sufficient equity/cover as that will force them to not make risky loans that they will forced to cover. * * ** * * Scalia on Retirees Losing Their Health Insurance: 'I Can't Feel Bad About It' "I CAN'T FEEL BAD ABOUT IT. Justice Antonin Scalia on the prospect of retirees losing their health insurance it the Supreme Court de rides against them. ,r fee 71 - •Ale - - A, A .,,,.. I 4t TIALLIANCEjusTICE Af' EFTA01197993 When I read this headline on Huffington Post I truly couldn't believe it — Scalia on Retirees Losing Their Health Insurance: 'I Can't Feel Bad About It' I was absolutely sure that this liberal media outlet had overblown or miss-interpreted this Justice on the Supreme Court. So like you do are doing now, I read the article, did some more research and spoke with friends because this is not about the law it is about how we treat our fellow citizens. And the lack of empathy that our ruling class and how they openly feel comfortable to express their condescension for those Americans are falling through the safety net. The underlying issue centers around a group of retirees at a chemical plant In Apple Grove, West Virginia, there are some retirees from a chemical plant who were trying to keep the health insurance they were promised based on a union negotiated series of collective bargaining agreements stipulating that retired employees "will receive a full company contribution towards the cost of [health] benefits." The union believed the benefits were guaranteed for life. The company contends it could take away these benefits whenever it chose--which it did in 2007. The retirees challenged that action. The retirees won in the lower courts, and now their case is pending before the Supreme Court. As USW President Leo Gerard points out in a column for the union's blog: The agreement never says the retiree loses the benefit after so many years or must pay a portion of the costs. It also doesn't say benefits earned by retirees over their work lives end with the expiration of any given collective bargaining agreement. In that same blog post, Gerard quotes Tackett, the lead plaintiff in the suit and one of those who helped negotiate the agreements, as follows: "We have several people who passed away," as they awaited the outcome. "We just don't know how many of them died as a result of not going to the doctor when needed or not getting medication they needed" because they couldn't afford the insurance. Is there anyone who simply wouldn't care what happens to these retirees? Apparently, yes. During oral arguments, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia offered up the functional equivalent of "Bah, Humbug!" Said Scalia: You know, the nice thing about a contract case of this sort is you can't feel bad about it. Whoever loses deserves to lose. I mean, this thing [the duration of the health benefits] is obviously an important feature. Both sides knew it was left unaddressed, so, you know, whoever loses deserves to lose for casting this upon us when it could have been said very clearly in the contract. Such an important feature. So I hope we'll get it right, but, you know, I can't feel bad about it. Justice Stephen Breyer was quick to disagree: EFTA01197994 Well, you know, the workers who discover they've been retired for five years and don't have any health benefits might feel a little bad about it. Listen to the comments of Justice Scalia and Justice Breyer: Web Link: https://soundcloud.com/allianceforjustice/scalia-says-he-cant-feel-bad-about-it This is nothing new for Justice Scalia. Last year, he referred to the Voting Rights Acts as a "perpetuation of racial entitlement." And tilting the scales of justice to favor corporate wrongdoers is nothing new for this Supreme Court. The court has upheld forced arbitration clauses that keep those harmed by big businesses out of court, prevented women from banding together to stop employment discrimination, and allowed employers to impose their religious views on employees. I don't actually expect Scalia to ever care but I hope that this time the other justices will take him to task for his insensitivity and lack of understanding and compassion for millions of Americans who have played by the rules and now see their promised pensions taken away. Like our President our Supreme Justices represent every Americans and Justice Scalia you should feel bad when your fellow citizens who you serve lose anything that will make it harder to live and this is my first rant of the the New Year WEEK's READINGS ISIS, Ebola, Putin and Ferguson: Old News? What stories will make headlines in 2015? The truth is nobody knows. EFTA01197995 Syria, Ukraine, Gaza, Iraq, ISIS, Ebola, Ferguson — the list of some of last year's disasters is long. But buried among the tragic headlines and breaking news are other events that attracted less attention but could be just as consequential for global affairs. Here are five to watch. 1.) The fall of oil prices. Over the summer oil prices dropped to the lowest level in a year. The fluctuation alone is nothing special. What is remarkable, however, is that this drop occurred amid severe sanctions against Russia and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine—in other words, at a time when crude-oil prices should be soaring. What's going on? The energy revolution taking place in the United States has reached sufficient scale where it is beginning to alter international dynamics. The U.S. has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world's main oil-producing nation. In August, U.S. monthly oil production was at its highest level since 1986. Meanwhile, the anemic global economy is not generating as much demand for energy as it did during the booming years that preceded the Great Recession that started in 2008. The combination of greater supply and weaker demand is pulling prices down and having a much larger effect than the upward push created by the current geopolitical instability. This summer we witnessed a clear manifestation of an incipient and potentially transformative energy order. 2) The worst American drought in more than a century. The western United States, Mexico, and Central America have gone three years with very little rainfall, and the situation grew dire this summer. Sixty percent of California is now experiencing "exceptional drought," the most extreme category according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The volume of water lost by lack of rain and snow could cover the entire area stretching from the Rocky Mountains to the Pacific Coast with four inches of water. California's three largest reservoirs are at roughly 30-percent capacity and a new study from the University of California, Davis estimates that the current drought will cost the state $2.2 billion in damages and 17,000 jobs. The west's severe drought wasn't this summer's only climatic surprise. "2014 has not been typical," reports the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "Never before have such large areas of the country experienced such radically different temperature extremes as they have so far this year. (The map below shows just how divergent temperature patterns were across the contiguous United States between January and July 2014.) January - July 2014 Minimum Temperature Rankings EFTA01197996 Rank In I20-year record Record Much ceder Cooler Near Warmer Nuch warmer Record coldest than average than average average than average than average warmest The summer brought extreme climatic events in other countries as well: India and Pakistan, for instance, were ravaged by the heaviest torrential rains in half a century, which left at least 420 people dead and forced 47,000 to evacuate their homes. 3) The slowdown of Europe's economy. This summer confirmed that the sluggish recovery of Europe's economies has stalled. During the first half of the year, we learned that economic activity had stagnated in France and declined in Germany and Italy. There have been some bright spots: The Spanish economy is growing and the European Central Bank is adopting a policy that its chief, Mario Draghi, has dubbed "Whatever It Takes" — meaning that he is willing to use all the monetary tools at his disposal to stimulate eurozone economies. But he cannot accomplish this goal by himself, and monetary policy alone won't revive Europe's faltering economies. Structural reforms and fiscal policies that energize consumers and investors are needed, much talked about, and, so far, not adopted. Meanwhile, the all-important German economy is sputtering and analysts are divided about which large European economy —France or Italy—is more likely to implode first. This summer, the specter of deflation also arose in Europe, as a chronic fall in prices mixed dangerously with high levels of debt. Deflation is a difficult trap to escape: Japan has been struggling to break free from it for more than two decades. The summer of 2014 could be remembered as the time when deflation first gripped Europe. 4) The rise of Federica Mogherini. In November, Mogherini will replace Catherine Ashton as the European Union's high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, the continent's top foreign-policy job. In that position, the 41-year old Mogherini, who was appointed in August, will negotiate the perilous situations in Russia, Ukraine, Iran, North Africa, the Middle East, and China. She will also preside over the Foreign Affairs Council, which is comprised of Europe's 27 foreign ministers, and direct the European External Action Service, a fiendishly complicated bureaucracy of 3,500 diplomats scattered throughout the world. And what is Mogherini's main qualification? Six months as Italy's foreign minister. Most experts agree that she is woefully unprepared for such an important post. For example, Paola Subacchi of London's Chatham House writes: EFTA01197997 No one doubts that Mogherini will try her best to learn the nitty-gritty of her new job, but it will be like learning to fly by piloting a jumbo jet. Most of the time, an inexperienced pilot can avoid serious problems by relying on her more experienced crew and various technologies. But in the event of severe turbulence, only a pilot with sufficient skill and practice will be able to maintain control of the aircraft and keep the passengers calm. So it is disturbing, to say the least, that with Ukraine at war with Russia, and the Middle East in a spiraling crisis of fanaticism, Europe's leaders did not seek a candidate with a proven ability to forge an effective foreign policy from different—and often opposite—positions. EU foreign policy is now being piloted by an apprentice. Most observers also agree that by tapping Mogherini for this role, Europe has sent a clear message that it's not really interested in having a common foreign policy and instead prefers a weak official who will let each foreign minister pursue his or her country's own agenda. European leaders, it seems, do not take seriously the idea that their continent's weight in the world depends on the ability of its member nations to act together. 5) The other airplane accident. Malaysia Airlines Flight MI-Ir wasn't this summer's only geopolitically significant aviation tragedy. On August 13, the Brazilian presidential candidate Eduardo Campos was flying in a private jet when it crashed in poor weather conditions as it was landing at an airport near Sao Paulo. Up until then, the reelection of President Dilma Rousseff in October elections seemed a near certainty that would guarantee four more years in office for the political elite that has governed Brazil since 2003. But the polls have tightened since Marina Silva, who had been Campos's vice-presidential candidate, replaced him in the race. She now has a real chance of beating Dilma. If that happens, it could bring about many changes in Brazil, including the reflexive solidarity that its leaders have offered Latin American governments with awful human-rights records. Democracy may have a better chance in countries like Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, where for the past decade human rights, freedom of expression, and political liberties have been severely and systematically curtailed with the silent acquiescence of the region's largest country. There will be additional fallout from the murders of Michael Brown and Eric Gamer and the corresponding grand jury decisions that left people around the world speechless. And although going through the worst drought in recorded history the State of California finally received badly need rain storms weather is still going to be an issue, especially in drought stricken San Paulo which has all but run out of water. Paying heed to Democratic strategist James Carville who famously said, "It's the economy, stupid", the recession in the European Union and Japan will continue to generate media attention, as well as the partisan bickering in Washington as well as the run-up to 2016 Presidential election. These are, at least, the trend lines of these stories heading into 2015. But it is useful to remember — ahead of what will surely be a torrent of year-end predictions —that we ultimately don't know what will transform the world in the coming year. All we can do is look for clues to the surprises in store — whether they come in the form of a cyber-attack, a climate disaster, instability in oil-exporting countries struggling with falling crude prices, or none of the above. After all, by December 2013, the seeds of 2014's biggest stories were already planted: the newly named Islamic State of Iraq and Syria was challenging the Nusra Front for territory in Sy