Rapid urbanization over the next decades (from the current average of 55%, to 68% by 2050)12 puts increasing pressure on existing (sub)urban layouts. Experts suggest that AAM can help to counteract space constraints and traffic congestion (given the shortage of parking) while contributing to quieter and more pedestrian-friendly city environments. It further improves accessibility, travel flexibility and travel time, but only if integrated properly in existing modes of transport. It even increases range into more distant, suburban areas (e.g. as an alternative to extension of metro lines), enabling passengers to travel further in the same amount of time. However, it may spark induced demand – the phenomenon of people traveling longer distances and more often – potentially limiting the benefits of reduced congestion and a cleaner environment. Currently, public acceptance is a key challenge. The expected high prices remind potential customers of helicopters (“a toy for the rich”) rather than a mode of mass transport. This will not change in the short term, but society needs to be educated to counteract fears of noise pollution or a darkening sky impression from mass operations, which will not occur in the foreseeable future. The same holds true for privacy concerns related to mounted sensor technology passing over people’s heads as not every vehicle uses cameras. Since most vehicles will initially be flying piloted, backlash stemming from autonomous operations is rather limited. Furthermore, the existing electrical vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOL, the preferred vehicle type of most operators) technology currently lacks standardized vehicle certification and a regulatory framework. This obstructs the integration of the wider ecosystem including the airspace itself. Landing site availabilities and regulator bandwidth are hurdles to overcome from an infrastructure angle. City planners need to smartly adapt existing infrastructure, especially in the urban context (e.g. creating landing sites at train stations), where building new infrastructure is often not possible due to space or permit restrictions. Moreover, building new infrastructure is very capital intensive with unpredictable returns at present, hindering public and private investment in vertiports. From a commercial perspective, pilot-onboard operations will entail appreciable recruiting challenges, given both the training required and the implied salary cap to keep fares down, especially since manufacturing scalability for OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) remains a challenge at the initial stages. Moreover, high aircraft utilization is needed to break even, which necessitates quick turnaround times and a route network with established demand. The former requires quick-charging solutions with grid access that can cope during peak times, while the latter is more feasible initially on high-frequency “thick” routes such as airport transfer to city centres. Related physical security procedures are yet to be defined. The industry seems optimistic about the economic opportunity with a large potential market size, which could eventually lower service costs and thus pave the way towards democratized travel and further opportunities for regional passenger transport. In summary, with an increasing number of urban “no drive” zones, in the initial stages, AAM for passengers can open the aerial dimension by servicing predetermined routes for more than just high-net-worth travellers. However, neither the public nor the ecosystem are yet ready to welcome this new mode of transport as an extension of current public transport. Over the next few years, industry consolidation could establish a dominant vehicle design and realize the required manufacturing economies of scale for long-term commercial success, going past the initially low travel volumes. 3.3 (Sub)urban passenger transport Advanced Air Mobility: Shaping the Future of Aviation 15

Advanced Air Mobility 2024