The need to address climate change will not go away and, with improving economics of low- emission technologies, the green economy is here to stay. However, not everything that is green will grow, everywhere, all at once – especially in technologies that are still immature. The scale of the opportunity remains significant – but the need to understand fundamental market demands, economics and the wider regulatory environment has become a lot more important for navigating the green economy. Five key observations presented below can help leaders navigate the opportunity: OBSERVATION 1 Solutions to decarbonize more than 50% of total emissions are already cost-competitive.OBSERVATION 2 Markets for deep decarbonization technologies are growing – but much more unevenly.OBSERVATION 4 Energy independence is an increasing driver of low-carbon investments.OBSERVATION 3 Green growth is increasingly spearheaded by China.OBSERVATION 5 Climate adaptation markets are becoming material, including in the Global North. OBSERVATION 1 Solutions to decarbonize more than 50% of total emissions are already cost-competitive More than half of total emissions could be decarbonized by solutions that are already cost- competitive, with another 20% addressable through solutions at a minor cost disadvantage (see Figure 3). Proven solutions such as energy efficiency, solar photovoltaics (PV), wind power, and electric vehicles are rapidly scaling-up across geographies, shifting the tectonics of the global energy system. Even without subsidies, most of these technologies are poised for global growth and mass deployment. Over the past decade, key mitigation technologies such as solar PV, wind power and EV batteries have experienced explosive capacity growth, often outperforming expert projections (see Figure 4). At a global level, solar PV capacity projections for 2030 grew 84 times faster than expected in the early 2000s, with wind growing 11 times faster and EV battery deployment 9 times faster. In January 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued its “largest-ever upward revision” to renewable energy growth forecasts, 67% higher than its projection just two years earlier. A year later, the forecast was revised upwards by a further 33%; 2024 and 2025 saw continued records, with growth in 2024 renewable capacity additions at 22% and a further 9-23% growth expected by the end of 2025. Expectations are now stabilizing, with 2025 revisions showing flat or downward adjustments in capacity additions and 2030 generation across several regions. This reflects policy shifts in key markets and the growing technological and cost maturity of renewables as they align with market dynamics. The overall outlook remains strong; in November 2025, the IEA forecast that renewables will become the world’s largest source of electricity, reaching nearly 45% of total generation by 2030.15 This rapid scaling-up has been driven in part by much steeper cost declines than originally anticipated. Since 2010, average costs of solar PV fell by around ~90%, offshore wind power costs dropped by ~50% and lithium iron phosphate battery costs by ~90%.16 As a result, in most geographies these technologies no longer carry a cost premium over fossil alternatives in terms of levelized cost of energy (LCOE).17 These technologies have “crossed the S-curve” (cross-sector technology maturity indicator),18 demonstrating global scalability. They remain poised for global growth and mass deployment – not just where the subsidies are strongest. Both renewable energy capacity and generation are now expected to grow at 10% and 7% respectively or more annually in most regions (see Figure 5). Even in emerging regions such as Africa, solar panel imports have surged across 20 countries over the past 12 months – highlighting the extent of growth across the continent.19 For the US the forecast is less clear; in October 2025, the IEA revised its 2025–2030 growth projection down from 9% per year to 5%.20 Solar PV capacity projections for 2030 grew 84 times faster than expected in the early 2000s, with wind growing 11 times faster and EV battery deployment 9 times faster. Already a Multi-Trillion-Dollar Market: CEO Guide to Growth in the Green Economy 12

Already a Multi-Trillion-Dollar Market 2025