1.5˚C path 2˚C path Estimated trajectoryMtpa 050100150200 0750150022503000 2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 2035 2020 2025 2030 20350150300450600Low-carbon hydrogen1CCUS1Biofuels2Deep decarbonization technologies grow, but far below a net-zero pathway Requirement vs. estimated trajectory (Mtpa, 2020-2035) OBSERVATION 2 Markets for deep decarbonization technologies are growing – but much more unevenly If the world is to fully decarbonize, it will not be sufficient to scale up only those technologies that are “proven solutions”. In particular, decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors calls for levers such as low- carbon hydrogen, power-to-X, carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) and advanced biofuels – many of which are still immature and all of which currently come at high additional costs in nearly all markets. In comparison to the momentum from a few years back, the actual dynamics on most of these technologies have been disappointing and their current deployment pace remains far below the level needed for a net-zero pathway (see Figure 6). However, markets for these technologies are still expected to expand as unit economics improve. They will just not grow as fast as hoped and they will not grow everywhere. Deep decarbonization technologies, required vs. projected (2020-2035) FIGURE 6 Notes: 1. The low-carbon hydrogen and CCUS estimated trajectories are based on BCG scenarios and reflect policy uncertainty. The low scenario is based on: (a) 2030 projections assume existing operational capacity plus under-construction projects, with an 80% conversion rate applied to those under construction; and (b) 2035 projections assume full conversion (100%) of under-construction projects and a 60% conversion rate of planned projects. 2. Biofuels’ estimated trajectory is based on a BCG scenario leveraging IEA data, reflecting policy uncertainty and presenting a ±20% margin. Sources and further notes: IEA and BCG.25 The world needs to scale up deep decarbonization technologies to move to net zero (see Box 1). But scaling-up each of these solutions comes with significant challenges, ranging from high capital investments and significant energy intensity to missing infrastructure and limited feedstock.26 Equally important is supportive regulation, given that abatement costs run to several hundred dollars per tonne of CO2 in most places and applications. Therefore, they will only grow in regions where governments and businesses are heavily betting on their future. Already a Multi-Trillion-Dollar Market: CEO Guide to Growth in the Green Economy 15

Already a Multi-Trillion-Dollar Market 2025