Autonomous Vehicles 2025

Deployments in the United States and China are ongoing, but scaling will take time, both here and elsewhere.Robotaxis and roboshuttles2 Robotaxis and roboshuttles have the potential to revolutionize urban mobility. The ongoing large-scale deployments of autonomous taxis have proved self-driving fleets to be technologically feasible: in the United States, robotaxi firms have completed millions of paid rides without safety drivers, and Chinese firms have deployed hundreds of robotaxis in cities such as Wuhan. However, scaling these operations remains a significant challenge due to city-specific regulatory approvals, variations in driving environments and other operational complexities. In addition, the investment and operations required are fundamentally different from personal vehicle ADAS/AD, prompting several leading OEMs to exit the space and refocus on ADAS/AD exclusively. While both robotaxis and roboshuttles share many of the previously discussed benefits and challenges, the forecasts in this white paper focus solely on robotaxis as they are expected to be more widely deployed over the coming decade. Taking into account the array of potential outcomes and adoption speeds, fleets of robotaxis are expected to operate at large scale in 40 to 80 cities by 2035 (see Figure 5). Entering and expanding a city market requires such substantial time and investment that it will constrain supply until at least 2030.The high cost of technology is another major barrier. Developing the right AI algorithms demands billions in R&D, while mapping and adapting software for each city’s unique driving environment adds complexity. Ensuring safety and reliability through the use of expensive systems such as lidar (light detection and ranging) sensors ratchets up the costs even further. Scaling fleets also demands extensive physical infrastructure, including depots, maintenance hubs and high-speed connectivity. Operators must establish systems to clean, maintain and charge hundreds or thousands of vehicles daily, all of which build out the expenditure and slow down the speed to market. Expansion is expected to vary considerably across regions. Based on current trajectories, it is no surprise that China and the United States are forecasted to dominate the deployment of robotaxis in cities. Europe is expected to be the next biggest market, but these deployments are likely to have a stronger focus on roboshuttles that complement public transport networks. The Middle East is also emerging as an early adopter, but the number of cities suitable for mass deployment remains limited at present. Robotaxi forecast showing number of cities with large-scale operations FIGURE 5 20406080Number of cities with significant robotaxi fleetsHigh-adoption scenario – Strong ecosystem – High interest – Regulatory push Low-adoption scenario – Ecosystexm lagging – Safety concerns – Neutral authorities 2020 2025 2030 20350Supply constraints 2024: 6 cities Phoenix, San Francisco, LA Beijing, Wuhan, Chongqing2025-26: 13+ cities Las Vegas, Austin, Atlanta, … Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, …2021: 3 cities Phoenix, San Francisco Beijing 2020: 1 city PhoenixRegional distribution USA EuropeRoW China Source: Boston Consulting Group. Taking into account the array of potential outcomes and adoption speeds, fleets of robotaxis are expected to operate at large scale in 40 to 80 cities by 2035. Autonomous Vehicles: Timeline and Roadmap Ahead 11