Autonomous Vehicles 2025

Introducing robotaxis to urban areas may significantly impact citizens’ choice of transportation. Modal shifts are likely to go beyond changes in the use of traditional taxi and ride- hailing services to also impact public transport and private car use. This may have a knock-on effect for private vehicle ownership. Robotaxis’ overall impact on transportation capacity will depend heavily on whether they are used for shared or private rides. If they primarily serve single riders, empty miles will increase, lowering vehicle utilization and contributing to congestion. In turn, this would reduce overall transportation efficiency. If robotaxis are not properly integrated with existing public transport, the effect will deepen as they will begin to ‘cannibalize’ the public network – a previous World Economic Forum publication already showed this by modelling the potential impact for the US city of Boston.4 Currently, most robotaxi operators do not incorporate shared rides into their business models. This underscores the need for thoughtful policy measures that align autonomous mobility with cities’ transportation and sustainability goals. Without proactive regulatory frameworks, the widespread deployment of robotaxis could lead to increased congestion and inefficient fleet utilization, undermining some of the major benefits autonomous mobility aims to deliver. Ecosystem readiness Scaling robotaxis requires more than simply manufacturing greater numbers of autonomous vehicles. Success depends on a complex ecosystem of stakeholders, spanning production, operations and usage. The main tasks – some of which remain as-yet substantially unfulfilled – for the various stakeholders are outlined in Table 1.The first set of stakeholders identified are the OEMs and autonomous driving tech companies producing autonomous robotaxis. OEMs must provide vehicles tailored for robotaxi use, and this requires transforming software-defined vehicles with new electrical/electronic (E/E) architectures. Meanwhile, AD tech companies must ensure reliable safety across ODDs and regions while also making their technology both scalable and affordable. For the enabling stakeholders, the successful deployment of robotaxis requires strong availability of funding for R&D, regulatory alignment across geographies, and insurance models. Insurance companies play a crucial role here, and they will need to redefine their risk assessment models and liability frameworks – a highly complex task hindered by scarce data and the potential for many unknown risks. A number of stakeholders must collaborate closely for robotaxi operations to be implemented smoothly. Cities and utilities can contribute by providing dedicated charging stations, pick-up/ drop-off zones and easily accessible maintenance depots. These efforts should be coordinated with fleet management firms, many of which are still in the early stages of development. The role of fleet control becomes increasingly important for a safe operating environment. Fleet operators must establish advanced control centres to monitor and optimize vehicle uptime, safety and performance. Many of the tasks for fleet management and control are still being defined, creating opportunities for ambitious new players to enter the ecosystem. Finally, the role of the end user as a key stakeholder cannot be underplayed. The long- term success of robotaxis hinges on user adoption and, ideally, integration into public transit networks for more efficient and sustainable usage. Large- scale education campaigns on the capabilities and limitations of robotaxis are crucial for building public trust and increasing road safety. Without proactive regulatory frameworks, the widespread deployment of robotaxis could lead to increased congestion and inefficient fleet utilization. Autonomous Vehicles: Timeline and Roadmap Ahead 12