Autonomous Vehicles 2025

Autonomous trucking deployment forecast for the four use cases operating on public roads FIGURE 7 Distribution Mid-distance P2P Long-haul Mid-distance H2HExpected share of autonomous trucks in new sales for 2025-2035 by region and use case USA leads AD truck adoption thanks to strong TCO benefits, significant driver shortages and long freight distancesEurope sees high TCO benefits but faces slower adoption due to cross-border regulatory hurdles and operational complexityChina lags in adoption due to lower TCO benefits and higher upfront investmentAdoption could follow a similar speed to USA and Europe if the government chooses to prioritize it 2025 2030 2035 2025 2030 2035 2025 2030 2035 2025 2030 20350% 0% 0% 2%11%22%29% 2%10%13%26% 2%8%15%19%United States Europe China Source: Boston Consulting Group.Autonomous trucking use cases FIGURE 6 Deployable without limitations Partially deployable Deployment not possibleAnticipated readiness by 2035 – Fixed routes along highways align with L4 strengths – Regulation is focused on main highway routes – High-volume corridors need to be upgraded to enable AV operations – Less infrastructure needed than for long-haul (when transitioning away from internal combustion engines in line with sustainability objectives) – Shorter routes are easier to regulate and equip for AD – Route variability strongly increases technological complexity – Similar regulatory needs as for mid-distance hub-to-hub use case – Infrastructure upgrades are more demanding than for hub-to-hub – Tech readiness is largely dependent on progress of light vehicles – Likelihood of risk of failure causing human harm will slow regulation – Complex environments with many road users challenge developments – Autonomy is best suited to controlled environments and repetitive tasks – Limited potential for human harm reduces the demand for regulation – The operating area is restricted, widely mapped and monitoredRationale Use cases Technology Regulation Infrastructure Long-haul hub-to-hub Mid-distance hub-to-hub Mid-distance point-to-point Intra-city distribution Closed environmentEurope will also reap strong TCO benefits from long-haul and mid-distance hub-to-hub use cases. However, estimates suggest slower adoption in Europe due to cross-border regulatory hurdles and more complex operational environments. A pan-European approach is key if the continent is to rapidly scale these long-haul operations. However, mid-distance hub-to-hub autonomous trucks could make up around 26% of new truck sales by 2035.China is projected to follow a slower adoption pathway, mainly due to lower TCO benefits and higher upfront investment compared to conventional options. Government support could speed up the Chinese trajectory, enabling deployment to match or even outpace Western growth rates. Autonomous Vehicles: Timeline and Roadmap Ahead 15