Autonomous Vehicles 2025

Executive summary Early deployments of autonomous vehicles are already on the roads. However, it is becoming apparent that large-scale rollout will be slower than once anticipated. While previous and even some current forecasts state that autonomous vehicles will be widely adopted during the 2020s, the analyses of this white paper suggest mainstream deployment will be slower than that given the many challenges and inherent technological, regulatory and economic complexities. Despite this, the rationale for AV adoption remains compelling, driven by substantial potential benefits including enhanced safety, improved efficiency and lower costs. This white paper provides a refined forecast for deployment and identifies key remaining gaps and actions for accelerating that deployment safely. It explores three main use cases: personal vehicles, robotaxis and autonomous trucks. The key insights on each of these are as follows: –While personal vehicles will progressively transition toward higher levels of automation, L2 and L2+ systems will dominate this use case for the next decade due to their cost-effectiveness and regulatory readiness. L3 adoption will remain limited due to safety risks, liability concerns and high costs, and L4 deployment will be niche during this timeframe: only around 4% of new personal cars sold by 2035 are expected to feature L4 capabilities. China is forecast to adopt L2+ and L3/L4 vehicles most quickly, driven by strong consumer demand, a regulatory push and an ecosystem that encourages innovation. (See Box 1 for an explanation of the levels of automation.) –Robotaxis have already demonstrated technological feasibility, with large-scale deployments running in selected US and Chinese cities. However, the high costs of software development, infrastructure set-up and scaling continue to slow deployment. By 2035, robotaxis are likely to be present in large numbers across 40 to 80 cities globally, mostly in China and the United States. Until at least 2030, Europe is expected to remain cautious about the rollout of robotaxis. Europe is likely to prioritize small, controlled pilots and focus on integrating roboshuttles with public transport systems instead. Large-scale robotaxi (and roboshuttle) deployments will lead to modal shifts, affecting not only taxi and traditional ride-hailing but also personal car and public transport use. –Autonomous trucking presents a strong case for autonomy. Compared to traditional trucking, it introduces a new value proposition that goes beyond advantages in efficiency and total cost of ownership. Several companies have started commercial operations, and 2025 is expected to be an important year for autonomous trucking deployments. Among the different use-cases, hub-to-hub trucking has the most promise for automation. The United States is expected to lead adoption for this use case: it is projected that autonomous trucks will account for up to 30% of new truck sales in the US by 2035. In Europe, international borders pose challenges for long-haul applications, and China’s weaker cost benefits may limit deployment unless policy interventions accelerate progress. The forecasts in this white paper aim to account for expected developments. However, technological breakthroughs, such as the successful deployment of map-free and vision- only L3/L4 systems, or massive additional funding injections could significantly accelerate adoption beyond these projections. To further speed up the deployment of vehicle autonomy, the industry needs to keep working on five different fronts. First, bring the public on board by communicating consistent messages and building consumer trust. Second, continue leveraging advances in technology, including AI and cybersecurity breakthroughs, to tackle the current shortcoming surrounding safety, usability and scalability. Third, develop sustainable business models that foster long-term viability. Fourth, co-create regulations to help policymakers better understand the progress and readiness of vehicle automation technology. And, finally, collaborate within and across industries to better facilitate large-scale deployments.Autonomous vehicles: Scaling for impact while addressing remaining challenges. Autonomous Vehicles: Timeline and Roadmap Ahead 4