Autonomous Vehicles 2025

Introduction Until very recently, forecasts stated that autonomous vehicles would be everywhere in the 2020s. However, it is now evident that technological, regulatory and economic challenges mean adoption will happen more gradually. Despite the difficulties, the rationale for AVs remains strong, driven by potential safety and efficiency benefits, among others. Road safety remains one of the most pressing concerns in global transport, and advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving (ADAS/AD) could help reduce the 1.2 million road fatalities that occur each year.1 The many efficiency gains include achieving higher vehicle utilization rates through reduced idle time and maximized vehicle loads. These advantages apply to both passenger transport, through ride pooling, and goods transport, through optimized freight movement. Better transport options may also spur a shift away from personal vehicle dependence, leading to a more sustainable mobility system. This white paper aims to shed light on the evolving vehicle autonomy timeline between now and 2035 across three key use cases: personal vehicles, robotaxis and autonomous trucks (see Figure 1). Special-purpose vehicles operating in enclosed facilities, such as those for mining or agriculture, are also highly suited for automation but fall outside of the scope of this white paper.The forecasts developed here are based on analysis grounded in five key dimensions: 1. Consumer trust and interest 2. Projected ADAS/AD prices and consumers’ willingness to pay 3. Technological obstacles and the timeframe for overcoming them 4. Current regulatory status and anticipated regulatory developments 5. Ecosystem developments to support scaling While the first two dimensions help determine the potential demand, the last three concern the potential supply. These dimensions also form the basis of the actions outlined in this paper to safely scale vehicle autonomy. The forecasts in this white paper aim to account for expected progress. However, technological breakthroughs, such as the successful deployment of map-free and vision-only L3/L4 systems, or massive additional funding injections could significantly accelerate adoption beyond these projections.Autonomous vehicles move beyond initial hype and disillusionment towards real-world deployment. Comparative overview of the four main vehicle autonomy segments FIGURE 1 – Enhance the flexibility of public transport – Reduce operational costs and improve accessibility Fleet providers own and operate Autonomy-first system development (L4) Suburban and urban– Improve safety in hazardous environments – Enhance efficiency for specialized tasks Specialist firms own and operate Autonomy-first system development (L4) Special environmentsExpected benefits Ownership Tech level* Domain– Increase road safety by reducing human error – Enhance convenience during travel Privately owned or leased Gradual development from ADAS (L0-L2+) to AD (L3/L4) Highway, suburban and urban– Address critical driver shortages – Increase efficiency and flexibility with 24/7 uptime Fleet providers own and operate Autonomy-first system development (L4) Highway and suburbanFocus of this whitepaper Robotaxis and roboshuttlesAutonomous trucks Special purpose autonomous vehiclesPersonal vehicles *See Box 1 for more information on technology levels. This white paper aims to shed light on the evolving vehicle autonomy timeline between now and 2035. Autonomous Vehicles: Timeline and Roadmap Ahead 5