Autonomous Vehicles 2025

1 Personal vehicles represent the largest AV market segment by volume. This means that automation advances in this area are crucial for improving road safety and enhancing travel convenience. However, vehicle automation in personal vehicles is an incremental evolution rather than a disruptive revolution. While many projections have long stated driverless vehicles are imminent, this white paper finds that, over the next decade, personal vehicles will benefit primarily from advanced assistance features rather than autonomy. Detailed expectations for the uptake of each level between 2023 and 2035 are shown in Figure 2. As well as personal cars, Figure 2 also shows the share of L4 robotaxis (more on robotaxis in the next chapter). Forecasts for the uptake of each automation level Assisted driving technologies, particularly at L2 and L2+ levels, are expected to be the most dominant technologies in new cars sold in 2030 and beyond. This is due to broad market availability, low regulatory hurdles and lower system costs than for L3/L4. As a result, drivers of most new cars will still be required to keep their hands on the steering wheel and their eyes on the road long after 2035. The transition from L2 to L2+ will also be gradual, with L2 systems staying more popular during the upcoming decade. This is primarily due to cost constraints: while L2 systems are currently available for less than $700, L2+ systems can cost up to $3,000. L3 vehicles – where liability moves from the driver to the system, yet the driver still needs to be able to regain control in a short timeframe if required – will remain a transitional offering rather than a long-term solution (aside from specific use cases such as valet parking or traffic jams). There are four key constraints limiting the widespread adoption of L3 vehicles that are also beyond the timeline considered in this whitepaper:1. Safety risks: at L3, drivers are required to retake control within around 10 seconds, creating potential safety concerns in real- world conditions. 2. Liability concerns: the shift from driver responsibility to OEM liability, with the related issue of determining who was driving, makes manufacturers hesitant to scale L3 in public environments. 3. High costs: L3 requires a similar tech stack to L4, leading to nearly identical system costs that typically range from $7,000 to $10,000. 4. Limited value: consumers might expect full autonomy, but they are not allowed to fully disengage as they may be required to take over quickly. For these reasons, many OEMs continue to prioritize L2/L2+ advancements over L3, meaning that by 2035 and potentially beyond, L3 vehicles will still constitute only a small fraction of sales. For personal vehicles, L4 autonomy remains significantly constrained by both technical and regulatory barriers. At L4, if the vehicle operates within its defined ODD, the driver is entirely uninvolved, and the vehicle can bring itself to a safe stop if required. Only 4% of vehicles sold in 2035 are expected to feature L4 capabilities, reflecting the slow and selective deployment of true autonomous technology in this arena. In addition, given the additional operational challenges in urban settings, some of these capabilities will only be available for highway environments. Furthermore, in urban settings, fleet-based models, such as robotaxi services, may prevail over private ownership in the longer term. Finally, there are still expected to be a significant number of new vehicles with L0 and L1 technologies by 2035. The features of these technologies are also becoming increasingly commoditized, with many countries mandating basic safety features, Assisted, automated and autonomous personal vehicles Private ADAS/AD adoption is an evolution, with partially automated vehicles, not autonomous vehicles, dominating the next decade. 4% Only 4% of new personal vehicles sold in 2035 are expected to feature L4 capabilities. Autonomous Vehicles: Timeline and Roadmap Ahead 7