Autonomous Vehicles 2025

such as lane-keeping assistance and automatic emergency braking. L1 systems, however, struggle to deliver a compelling value proposition: they are a similar cost to L2 systems but offer significantly less functionality. As such, much of the L0 market share is projected to shift directly to L2 over time, bypassing L1 systems altogether. Supplementing the data represented in Figure 2, Figure 3 summarizes the sensitivity analysis carried out across the five key dimensions underlying the forecast. Technological progress, driven by possible breakthroughs in AI (see Box 2), sensors and computing power, offers the strongest potential for accelerating the rollout of AVs. Yet even if this technology leap was fully realized, L4 technologies would still only be present in a modest 7.5% of new car sales by 2035. In terms of the limits to uptake, the risk of unfavourable regulation is likely to be the biggest barrier. Such regulations could be enacted if major, negative incidents involving L4 technologies occurred, thereby underlining the importance of industry collaboration to ensure the safety of these technologies. Data, together with breakthroughs in E2E AI and scalable software, are integral factors to fast-track vehicle autonomy and enable global deployment. Bernd Schmaul, Chief Digital Officer, Bosch Mobility Passenger car ADAS/AD forecast FIGURE 2 2023Global new car sales by vehicle autonomy level L0 L1 L2 L2+ L4 Highway L4 Highway and Urban Robotaxis L32025 2030 203533% 13% 53%39% 13% 44%1% 13% 42% 12% 33%21% 38% 10% 24%<1% 1% <1% 4% 3%5% 1% Sensitivity analysis of the passenger car forecast FIGURE 3 Dimension Consumer trust and interest Pricing and willingness to pay Technological maturity Regulatory developments Ecosystem readinessMajor factors that could influence L4 car sales by 2035 Governments support AVs for technological leadership, safety and efficiency Regulators limit deployment due to major incidents AV solutions scale globally across automakers, standardizing tech Poor coordination and weak business cases hinder progressPercentage point change of L4 new car sales by 2035 from the base scenario of 4% (see Figure 2) Technological breakthroughs enable earlier, more scalable L4 deployments Key ODDs remain unresolved, and scalability continues to be limitedIntense competition (incl. price wars) drives availability of cost-efficient solutions Prices remain high due to component shortages and non-scalable solutionsEasy-to-use deployments with positive media coverage increase demand High-profile accidents negatively impact public trustDemand Supply-1.0+0.5+1.0 -2.0 +3.5 -3.0 +1.5 -3.5 +2.0 -2.0Note: Some of the totals do not sum to 100% due to rounding. Autonomous Vehicles: Timeline and Roadmap Ahead 8