Business on the Edge 2024

Endnotes 1. World Economic Forum. (2024, 26 September). World’s Leading CEO Climate Alliance Slashes Emissions by 10% While Achieving 18% Revenue Growth in Three Years [Press release]. https://www.weforum.org/press/2024/09/world-s-leading- ceo-climate-alliance-slashes-emissions-by-10-while-achieving-18-revenue-growth-in-three-years/. 2. World Economic Forum. (2023). Accelerating Business Action on Climate Change. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/ WEF_Climate_Change_Adaptation_2023.pdf. 3. Kotz, M. et al. (2024). The economic commitment of climate change. Nature, no. 628, 2024, pp. 551-557. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07219-0. Note – this is a rapidly developing area of research and scenario modelling: –Kotz et al’s research, published in April 2024, estimates an income (per capita) reduction of 11-29% (with a midpoint of 19%) by 2050, based on current emissions levels (RCP2.6).  –The World Economic Forum’s December 2024 report, The Cost of Inaction: A CEO Guide to Navigating Climate Risk, cites different research which finds that “overall, the net cost of inaction amounts to approximately 10% to 15% of lost global GDP by 2100.” Source: Benayad, A. et al. (2024). Why Investing in Climate Action Makes Good Economic Sense. Boston Consulting Group (BCG). https://www.bcg.com/publications/2024/investing-in-climate-action. –Benayad et al’s analysis is based on a review of recent literature, expert engagement and macroeconomic modelling by Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), Phase IV, as of November 2023. –On 5 November 2024, NGFS published new analysis which assesses that GDP losses by 2050 could be two to four times greater than previously estimated. For instance, they increase significantly for both the “current policies” scenario (from 5% to 15%) and the net-zero 2050 scenario (from 2% to 7%). Source: Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). (2024, 5 November). NGFS publishes latest long-term climate macro-financial scenarios for climate risks assessment [Press release]. https://www.ngfs.net/en/communique-de-presse/ngfs-publishes-latest-long- term-climate-macro-financial-scenarios-climate-risks-assessment-2024. 4. Williams, A. & Whiteman, G. (2021). A call for deep engagement for impact: Addressing the planetary emergency. Strategic Organization, vol. 19, no. 3, 2021, pp. 526-537. https://doi.org/10.1177/14761270211011703. 5. Accenture analysis. See Figure 3 and methodology at Annex 2 for more detail. 6. Earnings = EBITA (earnings before interest, tax and amortization); see Figure 6 and methodology at Annex 2 for more detail. 7. Accenture analysis of S&P 500 EBITA margins between Q3-2019 and Q2-2020; data sourced from S&P Capital IQ (accessed 9 September 2024). 8. Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. (2022). 3. Impacts of 1.5 ºC Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. IPCC Special Report on Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-industrial Levels in Context of Strengthening Response to Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty, pp. 175-312. Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/9781009157940.005. 9. Lenton, T. M. et al. (2023). Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter. https://report-2023.global-tipping- points.org/. 10. S&P Global. (2020). 66% of major global companies have at least one asset at high risk of physical risk under the high impact climate change scenario in 2050. https://www.spglobal.com/esg/education/essential-sustainability/climate/ physical-risks. 11. Lenton, T. M. et al. (2023). Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter. https://report-2023.global-tipping- points.org/. 12. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023). Sixth Assessment Report. https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment- report/ar6/. 13. Newman, R. & Noy, I. (2023). The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change. Nature Communication, vol. 14, no. 6103, 2023. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-41888-1. 14. National Centers for Environmental Information. (2024). Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/. 15. European Environment Agency. (2022). Economic losses and fatalities from weather- and climate-related events in Europe. https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/economic-losses-and-fatalities-from/economic-losses-and-fatalities-from. 16. World Meteorological Organization. (2024, 2 September). Africa faces disproportionate burden from climate change and adaptation costs [Press release]. https://wmo.int/media/news/africa-faces-disproportionate-burden-from-climate-change- and-adaptation-costs. 17. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023). Sixth Assessment Report - Frequently Asked Questions. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/faqs/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FAQ_Chapter_12.pdf. Business on the Edge: Building Industry Resilience to Climate Hazards 70