Chief Economists Outlook January 2025

10Chief Economists Outlook 15 International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024a). 16 Ibid.Global inflation continues to ease, with the IMF projecting an annual average of 4.3% this year, down from 6.7% in 2023 and an estimated 5.8% in 2024.15 This overall deceleration has been driven primarily by the advanced economies, which have been returning to their inflation targets more rapidly than emerging-market and developing economies. Services inflation has been slower to ease than goods inflation, and in numerous advanced and emerging-market economies, the core services inflation rate is still around 50% higher than before the pandemic.16Regional inflation assessments by chief economists (see Figure 3) show that, after November’s election, the US now leads in inflation expectations. However, nearly three-quarters of respondents still anticipate only moderate inflation in 2025. Most of the regions record a broadly similar pattern, with a significant majority expecting moderate inflation and a much smaller share expecting either weak or strong inflation. Figure 3. Inflation expectations What is your expectation for inflation in the following geographies in 2025? Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2024, November).Share of respondents (%)12 73 15 Sub-Saharan AfricaUnited States Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa21 57 21 20 64 16 20 68 12 22 70 7 19 78 4 58 36 6 41 59 13 67 20EuropeSouth Asia Central Asia East Asia and Pacific ChinaVery low Low Moderate High Very high