Chief Economists Outlook January 2025

11Chief Economists Outlook 17 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Asia and Pacific Department. (2024).In Latin America and the Caribbean, the share of respondents expecting low inflation increased from just 6% in the last survey to 21% in the latest. Europe and the East Asia and Pacific region have notably higher proportions of respondents anticipating low inflation (36% and 41%, respectively). However, China is the unsurprising outlier given the deflationary pressures the country has been grappling with. Interestingly, the chief economists’ assessment (80% expecting low or very low inflation) is more bearish than in the last survey (69%). This contrasts with the view of the IMF in its latest “Article IV” assessment of the Chinese economy, which estimates that consumer price inflation will pick up from 0.7% last year to 1.9% this year.17 Figure 4. Monetary policy outlook What is your expectation for monetary policy in the following geographies in 2025? Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2024, November).Share of respondents (%)United States Latin America and the CaribbeanEurope East Asia and Pacific South Asia Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan AfricaChinaCentral AsiaLooser Unchanged Tighter 33 3333 43 431339 5748 437981163 173 642412 9 462 67675