Chief Economists Outlook January 2025

25Chief Economists Outlook 56 Politi, J. et al. (2024). 57 Simchi-Levi, D. & Haren, P . (2022).The shift to services trade continues Protectionism is identified in the survey as the factor most likely to drive lasting changes to global trade patterns (see Figure 16). However, a number of others feature prominently, including supply- chain restructuring (93% of respondents), conflict and sanctions (83%) and national security concerns (77%). Clearly, there are close interconnections between many of these. For example, national security concerns are an increasingly prominent justification for protectionist trade restrictions, such as US tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.56 Conflict can lead to significant supply-chain changes, as was the case following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.57 Only a minority of respondents expect either climate change (36%) or regulatory divergence (44%) to alter trade patterns significantly. It is notable that only a small majority (54%) expect global growth dynamics to have a significant impact, suggesting a trading environment in which the influence of traditional economic drivers may be diminishing relative to a range of more structural factors. Another such factor is technological change, which is cited as a significant driver by 60% of chief economists. Share of respondents (%)63 37 National security concernsProtectionism Supply chain restructuring Conflict (including sanctions)7 76 17 23 50 27 10 7 70 13 37 3 3 3 1753 7 43 47 7 13 37 43 7 47 33Diverging regulatory standardsTechnological advances Global growth dynamics Climate changeVery insignificant Insignificant Neither significant nor insignificant Significant Very insignificantFigure 16. Drivers of changing trade patterns Over the next three years, how significant do you think the following factors will be in causing durable changes to trade patterns? Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2024, November).