Chief Economists Outlook January 2025

26Chief Economists Outlook 58 Gopinath, G. et al. (2025). 59 Javorcik, B. et al. (2024). 60 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2024a).Aside from the impacts of any protectionist or similar interventions in the short term, there are other changes that look set to affect the global trading landscape over the medium and long term. A large majority of chief economists (82%) expect a greater regionalization of trade over the next three years. This echoes the trend of trade shifting towards geopolitically aligned countries,58 which research suggests could exert a significant drag on growth.59 The latest available data, relating to the third quarter of 2024, point to a continuing trend of geopolitical friendshoring, albeit at slightly reduced levels, while the regional concentration of trade has begun to decline more prominently.60Share of respondents (%)Strongly disagree Disagree Uncertain Agree Strongly agree Trade will become less global and more regionalIncreasing trade restrictions will lead to higher prices for consumers Trade will continue to shift from goods to services Services exports will become more important for development than goods exports Export-led growth will be an important development pathwayGlobal trade volumes will continue to increase Faster global GDP growth rates will depend on a return to stronger trade growth rates64 15 21 15 3 70 12 12 52 15 18 315 3 76 6 1827 9 42 48 27 27 4521 33Figure 17. Trade outlook Looking at the next three years, do you agree/disagree with the following statements? Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2024, November).