Chief Economists Outlook January 2025

27Chief Economists Outlook 61 UNCTADstat. (2024); authors’ calculations. 62 World Trade Organization (WTO) & World Bank Group. (2023). 63 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (2024b). 64 World Trade Organization (WTO) & World Bank Group. (2023).A more well-established trend is the gradual shift in the composition of trade from goods to services, which 82% of respondents expect to continue over the next three years. The value of merchandise exports is still about three times that of services exports, but services are growing slightly more rapidly. Between 2009 and 2023, the value of merchandise exports increased by 89% to $23.8 trillion, while services exports increased by 116% to $7.9 trillion.61 The deepening digitalization of economies has been a key driver of the growth of services trade in recent decades with exports of digitally delivered services experiencing the fastest growth by increasing almost four-fold.62 On the face of it, the gradual shift towards trade in services tends to benefit developed economies. Whereas the value of merchandise trade is split roughly evenly between developing and developed economies, around two-thirds of services trade is associated with developed economies.63 Nevertheless, slightly more than half (51%) of the chief economists surveyed expect services to become more important for development than goods exports. One reason for this may be the relative employment intensity of services, which account for a greater share of global jobs and output than agriculture and industry combined.64