Chief Economists Outlook January 2025

7Chief Economists Outlook 1 World Economic Forum. (2024). 2 International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2024a). 3 Morgan Stanley. (2024). 4 Goldman Sachs. (2024).Much weaker Somewhat weaker Unchanged Somewhat stronger Much stronger Share of respondents (%) 56 28 17Economic growthThe outlook for the global economy remains subdued and downside risks have intensified, not least because of heightened uncertainty around the economic implications of November’s US presidential election. According to the World Economic Forum’s latest survey of chief economists, a majority (56%) expect the global economy to weaken over the next year compared to 17% who expect it to strengthen (see Figure 1). Compared to the last survey in August 2024, expectations for the year ahead have softened.1 Figure 1. The global economic outlook Looking at the year ahead, what are your expectations for the future condition of the global economy?1. Downside risks have risen Note: The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100% because figures have been rounded up/down. Source: Chief Economists Survey. (2024, November). At the time of writing, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) latest projection is that the global economy will expand by 3.2% this year, unchanged from 2024, and that it will slow marginally to 3.1% over the next five years.2 This remains one of the weakest medium-term outlooks in decades, and there are signs elsewhere of global forecasts being trimmed to reflect the impact of expected changes to US policy.3The next section will look at the outlook for the US economy in greater detail, but expectations of a short-term boost are reflected in 44% of chief economists pointing to strong US growth in 2025 (see Figure 2) – three times as many as in the last survey.4 The chief economists expect developments in the US to exert a drag on global growth, but they continue to expect significant divergence across regions.