Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

Growth, policy and geoeconomic outlook Both uncertainty and resilience are defining features of the global growth, policy and geoeconomic outlook. Chief economists were asked about the expected evolution of trade and investment policy and outcomes in the year ahead. The US and China enter 2026 in a trade truce. On 1 November, Presidents Trump and Xi agreed to a deal that keeps a 10% “reciprocal” US tariff on Chinese imports but suspends planned increases, extends key exemptions and secures Chinese commitments to suspend retaliatory tariffs and export controls on rare earths and other critical minerals.37 However, average US tariffs on Chinese goods remain far above pre-2025 levels (47.5% as of 14 November compared to 20.7% on 1 January), and trade policy uncertainty between the two countries remains elevated.38 When it comes to trade policy between the US and China, most respondents (64% and 69%, respectively) expect tariffs to remain unchanged. Yet there is an expectation that economic competition could intensify in other ways. A large majority of respondents (91%) expect US restrictions on technology exports to China to remain either unchanged (44%) or to increase (47%). Chips used in data centres remain a key part of this discussion.39 Likewise, 84% expect Chinese restrictions on exports of critical minerals to either remain in place (42%) or increase further (42%), in line with developments aimed at creating an alliance on rare earths.402 Figure 8: Trade policy Looking at the year ahead, how do you think the following aspects of global trade and investment are likely to evolve? Significant decrease Decrease No change Increase Significant increase Number of bilateral trade agreements 6 94 Number of regional trade agreements 31 69 US restrictions on exports of technology to China 8 44 44 3 Chinese restrictions on exports of critical minerals 17 42 39 3 US tariffs on China 22 64 14 Chinese tariffs on the US 22 69 8 Share of respondents (%) Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025).Trade and investment outlook At the same time, global trade is adjusting through regional and bilateral agreements. The US is deepening trade and investment frameworks with Japan, Korea and several South-East Asian partners, including critical minerals agreements, while Europe accelerates its own economic security agenda and seeks to stockpile key inputs.41 China is expanding commercial ties with South-East Asia and the European Union (EU) as it adapts to high US tariffs and episodic technology controls.42 More than nine in 10 chief economists surveyed expect the number of bilateral trade agreements to increase, and more than two-thirds of respondents expect an increase in regional trade agreements in the year ahead. Chief Economists’ Outlook January 13