Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

Figure 9: Trade outcomes Looking at the year ahead, how do you think the following aspects of global trade and investment are likely to evolve? Significant decrease Decrease No change Increase Significant increase Chinese exports into the rest of the world 3 8 72 17 Global trade volumes 6 31 28 36 Chinese exports into the US 3 69 14 14 US exports into China 67 22 11 US exports into the rest of the world 3 49 40 9 Share of respondents (%) Figure 10: Investment Looking at the year ahead, how do you think the following aspects of global trade and investment are likely to evolve? Significant decrease Decrease No change Increase Significant increase FDI into the US 14 29 51 6 Global FDI flows 31 20 49 FDI into China 3 49 40 9 Share of respondents (%)Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025). Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025).When it comes to expected trade outcomes in the year ahead, trade between the US and China is expected to decline further, with over two-thirds of respondents anticipating a decrease in exports from either country to the other. In the case of China, exports are being redirected towards other countries, pushing its annual trade surplus above $1 trillion despite falling sales to the US.43 A vast majority of respondents (89%) expect a further increase in exports to the rest of the world. In the case of the US, a vast majority of respondents (92%) expect no further increase (40%) or even a decline (52%) in US exports to the rest of the world. Still, in the context of the highest trade policy uncertainty on record, global trade in 2025 has remained exceptionally strong.44 Poised for a record-breaking year in December, flows were expected to surge past $35 trillion, an increase of about $2.2 trillion, or around 7%, compared with 2024.45 Chief economists surveyed are split on the question of how global trade volumes will evolve in the year ahead. While 28% expect volumes to remain constant, 36% and 37% expect an increase or decrease, respectively. Global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are also expected to adapt to the new geoeconomic trends. In the year ahead, a small majority of (51%) chief economists surveyed expect global FDI flows to remain unchanged (20%) or decline (31%), while almost half (49%) expect an increase. The difference between expectations for the US and China is significant. Of respondents, 57% expect FDI into the US to increase, a sizeable majority compared to only 14% who expect it to decrease. By contrast, 52% of respondents expect FDI into China to decrease, while only 9% anticipate an increase. 14 Chief Economists’ Outlook January