Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

United States The outlook for growth in the US has improved. The share of respondents anticipating weak or very weak growth dropped from 52% in the September 2025 Chief Economists’ Outlook to only 19% in this edition. Now, 69% expect moderate growth in the year ahead (up from 49%), while 11% are even more optimistic. A substantial share of US GDP gains in the past year are estimated to have come from data centre and AI-related capital spending.46 AI-related investment accounts for a rising share of US GDP and is projected to rise further, with annual spending increases on data centres alone between $100–225 billion in the next five years.47 For the US, 97% of chief economists surveyed expect the direct impact of AI investments on growth to be significant (89%) or very significant (8%). The key question for the outlook is whether this investment translates into lasting productivity gains or temporarily defers a broader slowdown. The surge in AI investment has supported equity markets and some high-value manufacturing, but is offset by concerns in other industries and softer consumer spending outside of the affluent bracket.48 Although consumer sentiment lifted 2.3 index points in early December and retail sales have held up, the overall tenor among consumers remains subdued.49 Respondents’ expectations for inflation are highest for the US, with 56% of chief economists surveyed expecting moderate and 44% expecting high inflation in the year ahead. Compared to the previous edition, where a majority of 59% expected high inflation, this is a small improvement. Year- ahead inflation expectations decreased to 4.2% in December, the fourth consecutive decline, and the lowest reading since January 2025.50 More than nine in 10 respondents (91%) anticipate looser monetary policy in the US in the year ahead (up from 85% in September 2025). In early December, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point to 3.75, a three-year low.51 In the US, about two-thirds of respondents (65%) expect looser fiscal policy in the year ahead. Compared to September 2025, the share anticipating an unchanged or tighter fiscal policy declined from 43% to 35%. The US deficit is anticipated to remain the largest among developed countries, and its debt-to-GDP ratio could exceed 140% by the end of the decade.52Regional growth and policy expectations Figure 11: Growth Looking at the year ahead, what is your expectation for economic growth in the following geographies? Very weak Weak Moderate Strong Very strong South Asia 3 31 60 6 East Asia and the Pacific 55 45 Middle East and North Africa 64 36 Central Asia 16 59 25 China 29 47 24 Sub-Saharan Africa 40 47 13 United States 19 69 11 Latin America and the Caribbean 21 71 9 Europe 53 44 3 Share of respondents (%) Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025). Chief Economists’ Outlook January 15