Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

China In China, while the overall share of surveyed chief economists anticipating moderate or stronger growth (71%) remains unchanged compared to the previous edition, among them, 24% now expect strong growth (up from 15%). External demand and technology are driving growth in China, but also heightening geopolitical and trade frictions. Customs data for the first 11 months of 2025 point to a record trade surplus of nearly $1.08 trillion, with exports rising 5.9% from a year earlier in November despite a nearly 29% drop (year-on- year) in shipments to the US and growing reliance on Europe, South-East Asia and other emerging markets.53 At the same time, China is embracing open-source large language models and promoting the rapid rise of domestic AI chipmakers.54 Of the chief economists surveyed, 83% expect the direct impact of AI-related investments on growth to be significant (77%) or very significant (6%). Figure 12: Growth impact of AI investment Looking at the next 2 years, how significant will the direct impact of AI-related investments be on growth (i.e. from data centres, energy infrastructure) in the following geographies? Very insignificant Insignificant Neither significant nor insignificant Significant Very significant United States 3 89 8 China 3 14 77 6 Europe 8 50 42 East Asia and the Pacific 12 48 39 South Asia 27 36 36 Middle East and North Africa 3 23 40 33 Central Asia 7 31 41 21 Latin America and the Caribbean 6 35 48 10 Sub-Saharan Africa 13 43 40 3 Share of respondents (%) Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025). Although China enters 2026 with deflation casting a shadow, there have been recent improvements. Official figures show consumer prices returning to a slight year-on-year growth of about 0.7% in November (up from 0.2% in October) while producer price deflation remained at 2.2% despite efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and calls on key sectors to scale back cut-throat competition.55 Compared to September 2025, expectations for inflation in China have increased among surveyed chief economists. The share of respondents anticipating low or very low inflation in the year ahead declined from 93% to 75%. Yet, 41% of respondents still expect very low inflation. Of the chief economists surveyed, 71% expect looser monetary policy in the year ahead (down from 75% in September 2025).The property sector remains an area of concern: a poll in December predicted that average home prices would fall by 3.7% this year and by an additional 2.8% in 2026, with investment and sales also anticipated to contract sharply.56 Investment in November was in decline for the third month in a row, and worries remain about the economy’s reliance on exports over domestic consumption.57 Against this backdrop, growth targets are expected to remain around 5% in 2026, relying on active fiscal support to boost household consumption.58 Seventy-one percent of respondents anticipate looser fiscal policy in China in the year ahead. Chief Economists’ Outlook January 16