Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

Sub-Saharan Africa Compared to the previous edition, the outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa has slightly deteriorated. While the share of respondents anticipating moderate growth in the year ahead declined from 57% to 47%, the share of those expecting weak growth increased from 29% to 40%. The IMF projects regional growth of 4.4% in 2026.76 Investment in AI remains limited in the region, and a majority of 56% of chief economists surveyed expect the direct impact on growth to be insignificant (43%) or very insignificant (13%). Almost two-thirds (64%) of respondents expect moderate inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa in the year ahead, while a quarter anticipates inflation to be high. Average consumer prices are expected to continue on their downward trajectory in 2026.77 More than four in five respondents (81%) expect monetary policy in Sub-Saharan Africa to remain unchanged in the year ahead. Public debt across the continent has increased substantially since 2010, with many countries forced to weigh debt servicing against social and infrastructure spending.78 More recently, domestic borrowing has started to surge, raising concerns about the vulnerability of local banks, which now hold around half of total government debt in the region.79 In Sub-Saharan Africa, almost two-thirds of respondents (64%) expect fiscal policy to remain unchanged in the year ahead. Latin America and the Caribbean In Latin America and the Caribbean, the outlook of surveyed chief economists has improved substantially, with 71% of respondents now anticipating moderate growth in the year ahead compared to 34% in September 2025. The share of chief economists expecting weak growth in the year ahead dropped by more than half. In October 2025, the IMF projected growth in Latin American and the Caribbean at 2.3% in 2026, before the recent geopolitical developments in the region.80 Argentina, Brazil and Mexico shape the region’s near-term outlook. Argentina continues on its reform trajectory, helped by support from Washington and multilateral lenders.81 Yet investors remain wary of the overvalued peso, intermittent reforms and social tensions, waiting for clearer signals before committing long-term capital.82 While the IMF anticipates growth in Brazil to moderate in 2026 amid tighter policies and tariff impacts, activity is expected to recover in Mexico.83 At the same time, public debt and borrowing costs remain elevated, leaving limited room for fiscal support and sharpening the focus on productivity reforms and private capital.84 Almost four in five respondents (78%) do not anticipate changes to fiscal policy in Latin America and the Caribbean. Inflation expectations for the region remain largely unchanged compared to the previous edition, with 68% of respondents expecting moderate inflation in the year ahead. More than two-thirds of respondents (69%) expect monetary policy in Latin America and the Caribbean to remain unchanged in the year ahead. Central Asia In Central Asia, a majority of respondents (59%) expect moderate growth in the year ahead. This share declined from 72% in the previous edition, while the share of respondents expecting strong or very strong growth more than doubled. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects output in Central Asia to expand by 5.2% in 2026 with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan leading the way, Uzbekistan growing solidly and Kazakhstan moderating yet still ahead of many of its peers.85 Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan illustrate the region’s bid to unlock competitiveness gains, although progress is uneven. Across the region, almost four in 10 respondents anticipate insignificant (31%) or very insignificant (7%) growth impacts from AI investments. Expectations for inflation in Central Asia have increased slightly, with nearly four in five (79%) expecting moderate inflation in the year ahead. More than four in five chief economists surveyed (85%) do not anticipate changes to monetary policy in Central Asia. Almost nine in 10 (88%) of respondents expect fiscal policy in the region to remain unchanged in the year ahead. Chief Economists’ Outlook January 20