Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

AI adoption outlook Geographically, the AI revolution is unfolding unevenly, deepening divides but also opening new opportunities. Consumer data on ChatGPT use showed that by mid-2025 it served roughly 10% of the global adult population, pointing to quick diffusion and early stages of overall adoption.86 Although the US currently dominates private AI investment and compute, China is making rapid progress based on open models.87 Chief economists were asked to share their expectations of how quickly AI adoption and deployment would translate into productivity gains. Overall, 79% of chief economists surveyed expect meaningful productivity gains in the US over the next two years, with 55% of them optimistic that this will happen within the year ahead. A share of 81% anticipate a productivity boost in China in the next two years, although only 42% see it as imminent. Respondents view East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia as the next closest followers, with shares of 60% and 50%, respectively anticipating meaningful productivity gains in 1–2 years. Europe is struggling to keep up in the global AI race.88 According to chief economists’ projections, Europe is expected to start reaping the productivity benefits of AI adoption and deployment within around 3 years. Although more than half (56%) expect a delay of three to four years, nearly four in 10 (38%) are more optimistic about the potential speed of adoption. Respondents were split on Central Asia. While none expected an imminent productivity boost, more than half (51%) expected gains to manifest in 2–3 years. However, almost as many (48%) viewed it as likely that gains from AI adoption could take 4–5 years or longer. In the Middle East and North Africa, 55% of respondents anticipated productivity gains in 3–4 years, on average slightly longer than in Europe. 3 Regional adoption 21 Chief Economists’ Outlook January