Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

China East Asia and the Pacific South Asia Europe Central Asia Middle East and North Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Sub-Saharan AfricaUnited StatesYears Country 3 2 1 4 5+Median 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 3.3 4.11Figure 16 : AI adoption: geographies How long do you think it will take for the adoption and deployment of AI tools to generate meaningful productivity gains across the following geographies? 9 9 123 3 3 23 233 625 3117 17 7 7 1734 532020(years) 5524 39 42 33 27 27 2710 723 1631 22 34 3417 21 21 17 24 13 13 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025).Latin America and the Caribbean is also expected by respondents to take longer to see meaningful productivity gains from the adoption and deployment of AI tools. Overall, 58% anticipate a productivity boost around 3–4 years. In the short to medium term, chief economists surveyed do not expect productivity gains from AI adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa. A total of 73% of respondents anticipate a productivity boost in 4–5 years, with more than half (53%) expecting this to take 5 years or longer. Industry adoption At the industry level, surveyed chief economists expect AI adoption and deployment to progress at varying speeds, resulting in uneven productivity gains. Information technology and digital communications stands out with a majority of 73% of respondents seeing an imminent productivity boost. Nearly all respondents (97%) expect meaningful productivity gains within the next two years. Controlled experiments in firms show that generative AI can increase the number of completed software developer tasks by more than 25%.89 A recent study found that the quantity of AI contributions to published articles on the web surged after the launch of ChatGPT.90A group of “fast-movers” – industries where a majority anticipates impacts within the next two years – is not far behind. For financial, professional and real estate services, over three-quarters (76%) anticipate a productivity boost in two years or less. Medical, healthcare and care services are also expected to use AI tools to unlock productivity gains in the short term. In a recent survey in the United Kingdom, nearly 30% of responding general practicioners reported using AI tools in their clinical practice.91 For supply chain and transport services, almost half (47%) of respondents expect meaningful productivity gains in one year, and almost all respondents (97%) agree that this would be the Chief Economists’ Outlook January 22