Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

(years) Financial, professional, real estate services Leisure and travelYears Industry 3 2 1 4 5+Median 1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 2.10.4Figure 17 : AI adoption: industries How long do you think it will take for the adoption and deployment of AI tools to generate meaningful productivity gains across the following industries? Education 2.3Information technology and digital communications Medical, healthcare and care services Supply chain and transport services Retail and wholesale of consumer goods Engineering, construction and utilities 16 12 1228 317 723136 266 9283316 12373 2148 37 Mining (excluding fossil fuels) Agriculture, forestry and fishing2.5 2.51731 3110 10 1024 5026 27479 12 9 19 25 31 1023 29 7 1434 34Energy and materials 2.112 22 28 2896 Manufacturing 2.115242133 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025). case within the next three years. Overall, 57% of chief economists surveyed anticipate meaningful gains in the next two years, with a sizable share of 48% believing that AI is unlocking productivity gains in the year ahead. Retail and wholesale of consumer goods marks another fast-moving industry, with 56% anticipating gains in the next two years and 84% in the next three. For engineering, construction and utilities, meaningful productivity gains are expected to manifest of a similar time scale, with 55% of surveyed chief economists anticipating gains within 1–2 years, and 78% in the next three. Respondents anticipate a slightly slower pace of adoption in the manufacturing industry. More than half (54%) expect gains in 2–3 years. While far from general-purpose deployment on factory floors, humanoid robotics companies are attracting large valuations and investments.92 For the leisure and travel industry, this share increases to nearly two-thirds (64%). Of the chief economists surveyed, three-quarters (75%) expect productivity gains in the next three years in the education industry. Almost one-third (31%) see imminent productivity gains from the adoption and deployment of AI tools. Schools and universities are tightening rules on generative AI as concerns grow over cheating, distraction and skill erosion, even as students adopt the tools at scale and some institutions cautiously embed AI into their curricula.93 Meanwhile, online providers struggle with high dropout rates, and valuations remain low despite promising prospects.94 Chief Economists’ Outlook January 23