Chief Economists Outlook January 2026

Firm-level adoption 31(years) Large firms (250 –1,000 employees) SMEs (10–250 employees) Micro-enterprises (below 10 employees)Very large firms (1,000+ employees)Years Firm size 3 2 1 4 5+Median 2.5 2.5 2.51.4Figure 18 : AI adoption: firms How long do you think it will take for the adoption and deployment of AI tools to generate meaningful productivity gains across the following firm sizes? 6 191737371123 14 1411 1734917 25 2516 1620 Source: Chief Economists Survey. (November 2025).The surveyed chief economists broadly expect relatively fast productivity gains from the adoption and deployment of AI in larger firms compared to smaller ones. For firms with more than 1,000 employees, 77% of respondents anticipate meaningful productivity gains within the next three years. Global surveys show that enterprise use of AI has surged into the mainstream, with nearly all organizations now deploying some form of AI, yet only a small minority reports scaled, workflowlevel transformation.95 While only 9% see meaningful productivity gains as imminent in firms with 250– 1,000 employees, 68% anticipate them in about 2–3 years. For small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), one-third of respondents expect meaningful productivity gains within about three years, one- third expect them earlier, while the other third expect them later. For micro-enterprises, a category that includes both young start-ups and old small businesses, respondents are split. For some industries, respondents are divided between two poles. Although 50% of respondents expect a productivity boost in energy and materials in the next two years, 28% think this could take up to five years or even longer. In mining (excluding fossil fuels), 44% expect to see meaningful productivity gains within two years, compared to 34% who expect five or more years of waiting time. Agriculture, forestry and fishing is similar: 38% see an impact in two years or less, while 31% only see potential long-term effects. When asked about the impact of AI on global employment levels, nearly three in four (72%) expect modest (66%) or significant (6%) job losses over the next two years, underlining the degree of anticipated disruption in the short to medium term. Recent whitecollar layoffs that cite AI as a reason, from technology to professional services, reinforce concerns, particularly for entry-level roles and fresh graduates.96 Broader employment indicators and sectoral studies suggest that, so far, AI has mostly reshaped tasks within jobs rather than eliminating entire occupations, echoing earlier findings that technologies such as diagnostic AI have complemented rather than replaced professions.97Still, there is a stronger expectation of both job decline and growth in the longer term. A majority of 57% expect job losses over the next 10 years, with the share expecting significant losses increasing from 6% over the next two years to 26% over the next 10 years. The share anticipating job gains also increases in the 10-year timeframe. Such gains are expected in occupations and firms that have no close pre-AI equivalents, as AI use moves beyond the replacement of existing clerical or analytical tasks.98 Over the long term, 26% expect modest job gains and 6% substantial job gains. Chief Economists’ Outlook January 24